Seattle (90-72) vs Toronto (94-68)
October 12, 2025 at 08:03 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Toronto -1.5 — Over/Under: +8
The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays meet Sunday in MLB Game 1 NLCS action at Rogers Centre. Here’s a Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction. This article will include a Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick.
The Seattle Mariners are coming off a 5-game series against the Tigers, where Friday’s game lasted 15 innings. The Seattle Mariners are batting .207 on the season, have a .292 OBP, and a .342 slugging percentage. The Seattle Mariners pitching staff has a 3.29 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Cal Raleigh leads the Seattle Mariners with 8 hits and 4 RBI, while J.P. Crawford and Josh Naylor have combined for 11 hits and 2 RBI.
Bryce Miller gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season. Miller is 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA and 2 strikeouts in his postseason career. Miller is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 9 strikeouts in his career against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Toronto Blue Jays beat the Yankees in 4 games and will play their first game since Wednesday. The Toronto Blue Jays are batting .338 on the season, have a .373 OBP, and a .601 slugging percentage. The Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff has a 4.37 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Ernie Clement leads the Toronto Blue Jays with 9 hits and 5 RBI, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho have combined for 16 hits and 13 RBI.
Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he is 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA and 189 strikeouts this season. Gausman is 1-2 with a 4.31 ERA and 33 strikeouts in his postseason career. Gausman is 2-4 with a 2.94 ERA and 74 strikeouts in his career against the Seattle Mariners.
This is going to be a tough game for the Mariners after they just played 15 innings. The Mariners used six bullpen arms in the victory, including 3 guys who pitched at least two innings, and now they’re back in another series with just one day rest. Those arms are tired. The Blue Jays are well rested and on fire offensively. The Blue Jays have scored at least 5 runs in all 4 playoff games.
Miller isn’t a pitcher you’d expect to see pitch in the playoffs, as he has a 5.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the season, and he has a 5.56 ERA and .273 allowed batting average on the road. Miller has allowed 33 hits and 18 runs in his last 30 innings. No, thanks. Gausman has allowed 33 hits and 11 runs in his last 38 innings. Gausman also has a lot of playoff reps, so he should be up for a game this big. There’s a lot pointing toward the Blue Jays in this spot, so I’ll side with the home team to draw first blood.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The Seattle Mariners are coming off a 5-game series against the Tigers, where Friday’s game lasted 15 innings. The Seattle Mariners are batting .207 on the season, have a .292 OBP, and a .342 slugging percentage. The Seattle Mariners pitching staff has a 3.29 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Cal Raleigh leads the Seattle Mariners with 8 hits and 4 RBI, while J.P. Crawford and Josh Naylor have combined for 11 hits and 2 RBI.
Bryce Miller gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season. Miller is 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA and 2 strikeouts in his postseason career. Miller is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 9 strikeouts in his career against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays beat the Yankees in 4 games and will play their first game since Wednesday. The Toronto Blue Jays are batting .338 on the season, have a .373 OBP, and a .601 slugging percentage. The Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff has a 4.37 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Ernie Clement leads the Toronto Blue Jays with 9 hits and 5 RBI, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho have combined for 16 hits and 13 RBI.
Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he is 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA and 189 strikeouts this season. Gausman is 1-2 with a 4.31 ERA and 33 strikeouts in his postseason career. Gausman is 2-4 with a 2.94 ERA and 74 strikeouts in his career against the Seattle Mariners.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman Record this season (inc. playoffs): 11-11 ERA: 3.53
- Home Record: 6-5
- Last 5 against Mariners: 1-1
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- The Blue Jays have won each of their last six games at Rogers Centre.
- The Mariners have lost each of their last five games against AL East opponents.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 night games against AL East opponents following a win.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last six games at Rogers Centre.
- The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Bryce Miller Record this season (inc. playoffs): 4-6 ERA: 5.61
- Road Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Blue Jays: 0-1
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Blue Jays have lost each of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents following a road win.
- The Mariners have won each of their last seven night games after going to extra innings.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games at Rogers Centre against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight playoff games after not playing the previous day.
- The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
- The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against AL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the last five games between the Mariners and Blue Jays have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mariners’ last four playoff games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last six games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last 10 night games between the Mariners and Blue Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
- Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in each of the Blue Jays’ last three games as home favorites.
- Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Kevin Gausman has recorded seven or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL West opponents.
- Bo Bichette has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against AL West opponents.
- Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 home appearances against AL opponents.
- George Springer ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.309) this season.
Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts
- Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in each of his last three road appearances against the Blue Jays after not playing the previous day.
- Bryce Miller has recorded four or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 14 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
- J.P. Crawford has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 11 Sunday games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Cal Raleigh ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.589) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.333).
- The Blue Jays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (1099).
- The Mariners rank 3rd in the league for home runs this season (238).
- The Mariners rank T3rd in the league for steals this season (161).
Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
This is going to be a tough game for the Mariners after they just played 15 innings. The Mariners used six bullpen arms in the victory, including 3 guys who pitched at least two innings, and now they’re back in another series with just one day rest. Those arms are tired. The Blue Jays are well rested and on fire offensively. The Blue Jays have scored at least 5 runs in all 4 playoff games.
Miller isn’t a pitcher you’d expect to see pitch in the playoffs, as he has a 5.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the season, and he has a 5.56 ERA and .273 allowed batting average on the road. Miller has allowed 33 hits and 18 runs in his last 30 innings. No, thanks. Gausman has allowed 33 hits and 11 runs in his last 38 innings. Gausman also has a lot of playoff reps, so he should be up for a game this big. There’s a lot pointing toward the Blue Jays in this spot, so I’ll side with the home team to draw first blood.