| MATCHUP | Seattle Mariners | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 65-74 | 75-64 |
| Spread | +1.5 -186 | -1.5 153 |
| Moneyline | +114 | -137 |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| Where | Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts | |
| When | Wednesday, September 2, 2026 | |
| Time | 04:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, September 2nd in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Boston Red Sox Preview
The Boston Red Sox have a 75-64 record this season and are sitting in 3rd place of the AL East. They have a 35-33 home record and are coming off a 6-9 home loss against the Mariners. They will face the Orioles and the Angels next.
The Boston Red Sox have a .250 batting average this season, .323 OBP, and .405 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the Red Sox’ best hitter with a .282 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 79, adding a team-high 26 home runs.
Patrick Sandoval (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, with a 1-3 record, 4.20 ERA, and 1.71 WHIP.
Seattle Mariners Preview
The Seattle Mariners have a 65-74 record this season and are sitting in 3rd place of the AL West. They have a 28-43 road record and are coming off a 9-6 road win against the Red Sox. They will face the Athletics and the Rangers next.
The Seattle Mariners have a .228 batting average this season, .309 OBP, and .376 slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Randy Arozarena is the Mariners’ best hitter with a .273 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 65, adding a team-high 22 home runs.
Bryce Miller (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, with a 4-8 record, 4.12 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP.
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: September 2, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Patrick Sandoval Record this season: 1-3 ERA: 4.20
- Home Record: 1-0
- Last 5 against Mariners: 0-2
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Mariners have lost each of their last 11 Wednesday games against AL East opponents.
- The Red Sox have won six of their last seven games against the Mariners following a loss.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games following a win.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against the Mariners following a loss.
- The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four day games.
- The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in 13 of their last 17 games as home favorites against AL opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Bryce Miller Record this season: 4-8 ERA: 4.12
- Road Record: 3-4
- Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-4
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine day games against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against the Red Sox.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last four road games against the Red Sox.
- The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Wednesday games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mariners have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against AL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mariners’ last four day games against AL opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Mariners’ last seven games at Fenway Park.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of the last 10 games between the Mariners and Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Mickey Gasper has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as favorites.
- Patrick Sandoval has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances against the Mariners.
- Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 11 home games against the Mariners.
- Ceddanne Rafaela ranks T10th in the league in Hits (150) this season.
Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts
- Randy Arozarena has hit a home run in five of the Mariners’ last six road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Bryce Miller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances in day games.
- Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 11 road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (253).
- The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (402).
- The Mariners rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (547).
- The Mariners rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1049).
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction
The Red Sox are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Mariners but are 1-3 in their last 4 meetings in Boston.
In this Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -130 home favorites. I like the Red Sox in a bounce-back spot at home today, as they will be facing Bryce Miller for the Mariners, who has been in his worst stretch of the season, having given up 16 runs across his last three starts. He has been weaker on the road with a 4.94 ERA, while Sandoval has given up two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and sits on a 3.54 home ERA. On top of that, the Red Sox have the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball and the Mariners are weaker against lefties. Take the Red Sox to win.