San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 5/21/25 MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Wednesday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Randy Vasquez for the start here, and Vasquez is 3-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 23 strikeouts this season. This will be Vasquez’s second career start against the Blue Jays. The Toronto Blue Jays will send out Kevin Gausman for the start here, and Gausman is 3-4 with a 4.59 ERA and 46 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Padres, Gausman is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 28 strikeouts.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to bounce back from their 3-0 loss at the hands of the Blue Jays in Tuesday’s series opener. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a series against the Atlanta Braves.

Padres Lose Fourth Straight

Manny Machado has 52 hits, including a team-high 14 doubles and 7 stolen bases, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 52 hits with a team-high 12 home runs and 27 RBIs, along with 8 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 47 hits with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, and 15 RBIs, while Jackson Merrill’s added 29 hits with 4 home runs and 17 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 9 doubles and 8 stolen bases this season. Gavin Sheets also has 7 doubles, 6 home runs, and 23 RBIs this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a win.
• The underdogs have won each of the Padres’ last four games.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four home games following a win.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Manny Machado has scored a run in each of the Padres’ last five games as underdogs.
• Jason Heyward has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded a Single in each of the Padres’ last six road games.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (12) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Padres from the series opener on Tuesday to improve to 23-24 on the year. After this series, the Blue Jays will head on the road for a division series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Blue Jays Looking To String Wins Together

George Springer has 36 hits and Bo Bichette has 57 hits, with Springer adding 5 home runs, a triple, 10 doubles, and 18 RBIs while Bichette has 15 doubles and 22 RBIs. Andres Gimenez has added 25 hits with 5 doubles and 3 home runs and 10 RBIs this season, along with 9 stolen bases, while Anthony Santander has 44 strikeouts so far this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also has 5 homers, 8 doubles, and 20 RBIs, while Springer also has a .263 batting average and 43 strikeouts up to this point in the year.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Padres have lost eight of their last nine games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have won each of their last five night games following a home win.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line each of their last seven night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Daulton Varsho has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Daulton Varsho has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has scored at least one run in each of the Blue Jays’ last seven games as favorites.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded five or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 13 appearances with his team as a favorite against NL West opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one Single in each of his 12 previous Wednesday appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last nine games as favorites.
• Bo Bichette ranks T9th in the league in Hits (57) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Blue Jays’ last four games as favorites against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m backing the Blue Jays in this one. I get the case to be made for the Padres, but the problem is that I think Randy Vasquez is in pure regression mode at this point. He has more walks than strikeouts this season, and the Blue Jays have the better starting option here and the slightly better bullpen as well. This feels like a good spot for the offense to break through, so give me Toronto in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -155