Philadelphia (54-40) vs San Diego (51-43)
July 12, 2025 at 07:35 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: San Diego +130 / Philadelphia -155 — Over/Under: +7.5
The Philadelphia Phillies are visiting the San Diego Padres on Saturday, July 12th at the Petco Park in the second game of this series, with the Padres having the 1-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction. We will examine:
The San Diego Padres recent form and player performance
The Philadelphia Phillies recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Philadelphia Phillies
Recent betting trends in games played between the Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres game
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres have a 51-43 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL West. They have a 30-17 home record, and are 38-53 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 4-2 home victory over the Phillies, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Marlins and the Nationals next.
The Padres have a .245 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .374 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Manny Machado leads the Padres with 105 hits, adding a team-high 55 RBI and a team-high 17 home runs. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .292 batting average
Yu Darvish (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 0-1 record, 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 54-40 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 24-24 road record, and are 39-52 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-4 road defeat by the Padres, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games and are playing the Angels and the Red Sox next.
The Phillies have a .256 batting average this season, .329 OBP and .406 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.65 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 111 hits and in batting average with .292, while Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 69 RBI and a team-high 30 home runs.
Zack Wheeler (R) will take the mound for the Phillies, and he has a 9-3 record, 2.17 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
The underdogs have won four of the Padres’ last five games.
The Phillies have lost eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.
The underdogs have covered the run line in 11 of the Padres’ last 12 games at Petco Park.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road favorites.
The Padres have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against National League opponents.
The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
The Phillies have won each of their last six games at Petco Park following a loss.
The Padres have lost eight of their last nine home games against the Phillies following a home win.
The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a loss.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games following a home win.
The Phillies have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against the Padres at Petco Park.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against the Padres at Petco Park.
Total Runs Facts
Seven of the Padres’ last eight games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Seven of the Phillies’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last eight games between the Phillies and Padres.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last eight games against NL West opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
The Padres rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (660).
The Padres rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.229).
The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (862).
The Phillies are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction
The Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings against the Padres, but both teams are tied 2-2 wins this season. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings.
In this Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -155 road favorites. Philadelphia has a better overall record, but San Diego has been very strong at home, while Philadelphia is mediocre on the road. The Phillies have the pitching advantage, as they are putting their ace on the mound in Zach Wheeler, who has been dominating this season and in excellent form. His previous start against the Padres this season was a shutout, while Darvish looked rusty in his first start of the season. Philly also has a better offense to back Wheeler, so I will take them on the first 5 innings and avoid their shaky bullpen.