San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction 07/29/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, July 29^th at the Petco Park in the second game of this series, with the Padres having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 58-49 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 32-18 home record, and are 44-60 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 7-6 home victory over the Mets, and have three consecutive wins. Under is 5-3 in their last 8 games and are playing the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks next. 

The Padres have a .250 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .379 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.60 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 124 hits, adding team-high .302 batting average and a team-high 66 RBI. He also adds a team-high 19 home runs. 

Ryan Bergert (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 1-0 record, 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 62-45 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. The Mets have a 25-29 road record and are 47-55 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-7 road defeat by the Padres, which snapped their previous seven-game winning streak. They are playing the Giants and the Guardians next.

The Mets have a .243 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .414 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.  Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 107 hits, adding a team-high 81 RBI and leads the team in batting average with .263. Juan Soto adds team-high 25 home runs.

Sean Manaea (L) will take the mound for the Mets, and he has a 1-1 record, 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Padres’ last eight games at Petco Park.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight Tuesday games as road favorites.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last 10 road games against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have lost six of their last seven night games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last 16 games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in seven of their last nine games as favorites against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last six games as favorites against the Padres have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Padres’ last 10 night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Padres’ last 10 night games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight games against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (90).
• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.229).
• The Mets rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (93).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.54).

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The Mets are 5-3 in their last 8 overall meetings against the Padres, but the Padres are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings in San Diego. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings. 

In this New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction, the Mets are coming as -125 road favorites. The Mets have a better overall record, but they have been below average on the road, while the Padres are one of the best home teams in the league. Manaea has been excellent in his two starts this season, and the Padres struggle against lefties, so I like the New York Mets to bounce back on the road and even the series today.