| MATCHUP | San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 91-71 | 103-59 |
| Spread | +1.5 -180 | -1.5 148 |
| Moneyline | +119 | -143 |
| Total | Over 7 (-113) | Under 7 (-107) |
| Where | American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin | |
| When | Sunday, October 4, 2026 | |
| Time | 04:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | FS1 | |
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres need a win to even up the series before going back home. The Padres haven’t lost two straight games since September 2. The San Diego Padres are batting .300 in these playoffs, have a .355 OBP, and have a .460 slugging percentage. The San Diego Padres’ pitching staff has a 1.38 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Xander Bogaerts leads the San Diego Padres with 5 hits and 2 RBI, while Ty France and Manny Machado have combined for 10 hits and 2 RBI.
Michael King gets the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he is 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA and 159 strikeouts this season. King is 0-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 32 strikeouts in his career against the Milwaukee Brewers. King is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 27 strikeouts in his postseason career.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers look to take a quick 2-0 series lead. The Brewers have won 16 of their last 19 games. The Milwaukee Brewers are batting .226 in these playoffs, have a .333 OBP, and have a .419 slugging percentage. The Milwaukee Brewers’ pitching staff has a 2.00 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. Jake Bauers leads the Milwaukee Brewers with 2 hits and 0 RBI, while Jackson Chourio and William Contreras have combined for 2 hits and 3 RBI.
Logan Henderson gets the ball for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he is 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 110 strikeouts this season. This will be Henderson’s second career game against the San Diego Padres. This will be Henderson’s playoff debut.
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won each of their last nine games at American Family Field against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- The Padres have lost each of their last four road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four playoff games as road underdogs.
- The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last nine playoff games as underdogs.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won each of their last seven day games against NL opponents.
- The Brewers have lost five of their last six playoff games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a road loss.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine playoff games as favorites against NL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Brewers’ last six playoff games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Padres’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in 10 of the Brewers’ last 11 games against NL West opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Padres’ last eight games as underdogs.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Jackson Chourio has hit a home run in each of the Brewers’ last three home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Logan Henderson has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances at American Family Field.
- Logan Henderson has recorded seven strikeouts in three of his four previous appearances against NL West opponents.
- Jackson Chourio has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last 11 home games against NL West opponents.
- Jackson Chourio ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.291) this season.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Michael King has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL opponents.
- Michael King has recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of his four previous appearances against the Brewers.
- Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances after playing the previous day.
- Gavin Sheets has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against NL opponents.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks 6th in the league in Steals (38) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.341).
- The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (832).
- The Padres rank T9th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1310).
- The Padres rank 9th in the league for runs allowed this season (681).
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Brewers should be favored at home as they’ve been the best team in baseball. Henderson has also been money with a 2.47 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. However, Henderson is a young pitcher who hasn’t been on the big stage yet. King is a vet who is not only having a strong season but has had playoff success. In his last 43 innings, King has allowed 32 hits and 10 earned runs. The Padres also haven’t lost two straight games in a month. The value is with the Padres and the plus money. I’ll take it.