San Diego (55-46) vs Miami (47-53)
July 23, 2025 at 12:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Miami +1.5 — Over/Under: +8
The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins meet Wednesday in MLB action at loanDepot park. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction. This article will include a San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Pick.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres are 55-46 on the year and play the Cardinals, Mets, and Cardinals next. The San Diego Padres are batting .246 on the season, have a .315 OBP, and a .375 slugging percentage. The San Diego Padres pitching staff has a 3.59 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Luis Arraez leads the San Diego Padres with 110 hits and 37 RBI, while Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined for 207 hits and 102 RBI.
Dylan Cease gets the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he is 3-9 with a 4.64 ERA and 139 strikeouts this season. Cease is 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 12 strikeouts in his career against the Miami Marlins.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins are 47-53 on the year and play the Brewers, Cardinals, and Yankees next. The Miami Marlins are batting .254 on the season, have a .315 OBP, and a .392 slugging percentage. The Miami Marlins pitching staff has a 4.52 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Xavier Edwards leads the Miami Marlins with 100 hits and 26 RBI, while Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez have combined for 174 hits and 113 RBI.
Sandy Alcantara gets the ball for the Miami Marlins, and he is 4-9 with a 7.14 ERA and 73 strikeouts this season. Alcantara is 2-2 with a 4.04 ERA and 25 strikeouts in his career against the San Diego Padres.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
The Padres have lost six of their last nine games as road favorites.
The underdogs have covered the run line in 11 of the Marlins’ last 12 games at LoanDepot Park.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
The Padres have won each of their last seven day games against NL East opponents following a loss.
The Marlins have lost each of their last nine Wednesday home games.
The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine day games against National League opponents following a road loss.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as home underdogs against NL West opponents following a win.
The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in 10 of their last 13 home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games against National League opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last five games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
Sandy Alcantara has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 30 appearances at LoanDepot Park against opponents that held a winning record.
Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last eight games against NL West opponents.
Kyle Stowers ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.295) this season.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last six games as favorites against the Marlins.
Dylan Cease has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Padres as favorites against NL East opponents.
Dylan Cease has recorded a win in each of his last six Wednesday appearances in day games with his team as a favorite.
Martin Maldonado has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against NL East opponents.
Luis Arraez ranks 8th in the league in Hits (110) this season.
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction
We’ve seen some offense in this series, and this game on a quick turnaround should be no different. Cease has allowed 17 hits and 10 runs in his last 17.1 innings, and he has a 5.68 ERA and .265 allowed batting average in 57 road innings. Alcantara is not the same pitcher he was when he won the CY Young, as he has a 7.14 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. In his last 17 innings, Alcantara has allowed 22 hits and 15 runs. Alcantara is allowing a .275 batting average on the season. We should see some runs in this spot. Give me the over.