San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 4/5/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, April 5th, at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 7-1 this season after they suffered their first loss of the season on Friday by a score of 3-1. San Diego tied the game at one in the third inning, but they went scoreless in the final six innings and stranded runners on second and third to end the game. The Padres recorded six hits and committed one error while they were led by Maldonado, who went 1-2 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. San Diego started Vasquez, who allowed two hits and two earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Matsui, Jacob, and Peralta allowed zero earned runs in 3.1 innings of relief work. 

Prior to this series, the Padres swept the Guardians in three games and the Braves in four games. The San Diego pitching staff has a 1.65 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and a .159 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 37 runs with a .284 batting average and a .351 on base percentage this season. Jackson Merrill has led San Diego with two home runs and eight RBIs, while Gavin Sheets and Fernando Tatis both have one home run and five RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Nick Pivetta, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.14 WHIP over 7.0 innings pitched this season. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 6-4 this year after they won game one of this series by a score of 3-1 on Friday afternoon. Chicago scored once in the first inning, and they added two runs in the fifth to get the win. The Cubs recorded just three hits in the game, but they drew seven walks, and they were led by Turner and Hoerner, who both had one RBI in the game. Chicago started Imanaga, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 7.1 innings for the win, while Pressly allowed one hit and stranded runners on second and third in the ninth for the save. 

Prior to this series, the Cubs swept the Athletics in three games and split four games against the Diamondbacks. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.70 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and a .265 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 63 runs with a .244 batting average and a .341 on-base percentage this season. Seiya Suzuki has led Chicago with four home runs and 11 RBIs, while Kyle Tucker has also added four home runs and 11 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Matthew Boyd, who is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Cubs will beat the Padres

• The home team has won 10 of the Padres’ last 11 games.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five road games against National League opponents.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Padres’ last five games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL Central opponents.

Why the Padres will beat the Cubs 

• The Padres have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The Cubs have lost 11 of their last 14 games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line each of their last nine Saturday games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 day games against the Padres following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Cubs’ last nine day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Padres’ last seven road games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Cubs’ last seven day games against NL West opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Tucker has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite against NL West opponents.
• Matthew Boyd has recorded five or more strikeouts in nine of his 10 previous appearances with his team as a favorite against NL opponents.
• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last six games.
• Justin Turner has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances with his team as a home favorite.
• Justin Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL opponents.
• Carson Kelly has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Padres.
• Justin Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three road appearances against NL opponents.
• Luis Campusano has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Padres as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Luis Campusano has scored at least one run in five of his last six road appearances.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 

Chicago was able to manufacture three runs to escape with the win in game one of this series on Friday, and they will look for their fifth straight win here. The Cubs have allowed three runs or fewer in three of their last four games, and they are starting Boyd, who allowed just four hits against Arizona in his first start. San Diego is 7-1 to start the 2025 season, and they are going with Pivetta, who allowed one hit over 7.0 innings in his first outing. Take the under in this matchup. 

David Racey's Pick: Under 7