| MATCHUP | San Diego Padres | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 90-72 | 92-70 |
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois | |
| When | Thursday, October 2, 2025 | |
| Time | 05:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN | |
The San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs meet Thursday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The San Diego Padres will start Yu Darvish here and Darvish is 5-5 with a 5.38 ERA and 68 strikeouts this season. The Chicago Cubs will start Jameson Taillon here and Taillon is 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA and 98 strikeouts this season.
San Diego Padres Recap
The San Diego Padres will be looking to forge ahead after picking up a 3-0 win over the Cubs in game two on Wednesday.
Padres Looking To Return To NLDS
Manny Machado has 169 hits including a team-high 33 doubles, 27 home runs, 95 RBIs and 14 stolen bases while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 159 hits with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs along with 32 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 181 hits with 30 doubles, 4 triples, 8 home runs and 61 RBIs while Jackson Merrill’s added 116 hits with 16 home runs and 67 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 30 doubles and 20 stolen bases as well this season. Gavin Sheets also has 28 doubles, 19 home runs and 71 RBIs as well this season.
Chicago Cubs Recap
The Chicago Cubs come into this one looking to rebound after allowing San Diego to even up the series at one win apiece on Wednesday.
Cubs Looking For First NLDS Appearance Since 2017
Ian Happ has 138 hits with 32 doubles, 23 home runs and 79 RBIs. Kyle Tucker has 133 hits including 25 doubles, 4 triples, 22 home runs and 73 RBIs while Seiya Suzuki also has 140 hits with 31 doubles and 32 home runs and 103 RBIs of his own. Pete Crow-Armstrong also has contributed 146 hits, 37 doubles, 4 triples, 31 home runs and 95 RBIs as well this season. Dansby Swanson has added 24 home runs and 77 RBIs, while also having 168 strikeouts and Suzuki has 164 strikeouts so far this season. Crow-Armstrong also has a team-high 35 stolen bases while Nico Hoerner has 29 stolen bases this season. Tucker’s also added 25 stolen bases while Michael Busch has also chipped in 25 doubles, 5 triples, 34 home runs and 90 RBIs this season.
San Diego Padres @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: October 2, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon Record this season: 11-7 ERA: 3.68
- Home Record: 5-2
- Last 5 against Padres: 2-0
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last seven games against the Padres following a loss.
- The Padres have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Cubs following a win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last seven games.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven playoff games following a win.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish Record this season: 5-5 ERA: 5.38
- Road Record: 1-3
- Last 5 against Cubs: 3-1
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Cubs have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
- The Padres have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road win.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Thursday games as home favorites against National League opponents.
- The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four games.
- The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
- The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six playoff games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Seven of the Padres’ last eight games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Padres’ last 14 games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the last five games between the Padres and Cubs.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites.
- Jameson Taillon has recorded three or more strikeouts in each of his last 14 appearances with his team as a favorite against NL West opponents.
- Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 home appearances.
- Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances.
- Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (178) this season.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Manny Machado has hit a home run in seven of the Padres’ last eight Thursday games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Yu Darvish has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his 32 previous appearances at Wrigley Field.
- Manny Machado has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
- Yu Darvish has recorded a win in each of his last three road appearances against the Cubs.
- Luis Arraez ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (181) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (405).
- The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (771).
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1197).
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction
I’m on the Cubs here. I get the case to be made for the Padres fresh off of their win to even the series up at one in a winner take all game, but Yu Darvish was not major league material for much of the season in my opinion and I could see him struggle here as well. Jameson Taillon’s not my favorite option in this Cubs rotation, but I think he’s good enough here and I think the Cubs win the series. Give me the Cubs.