| MATCHUP | San Diego Padres | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 90-72 | 92-70 |
| When | Wednesday, October 1, 2025 | |
| Time | 03:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ABC | |
In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, October 1st at the Wrigley Field in Game 2 of this NL Wild Card series, with the Cubs having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs finished the regular season with a 92-70 record and were placed first in the NL Central. The Cubs have a 51-31 home record and are 74-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-1 home win over the Padres, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Over is 6-3-1 in their last 9 games.
The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .430 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the team with two hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .667 batting average. Carson Kelly leads the team with one RBI and one home run.
Reliever Andrew Kittredge (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 4-3 record, 3.40 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres finished the regular season with a 90-72 record and were placed first in the NL West. The Padres have a 38-44 road record and are 69-88 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-3 road defeat by the Cubs, that ended their three-game winning streak. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 games.
The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .390 slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Xander Bogaerts has 2 hits for the Padres, adding one RBI and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .500 batting average.
Dylan Cease (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has an 8-12 record, 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
San Diego Padres @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: October 1, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Kittredge Record this season (inc. playoffs): 4-3 ERA: 3.33
- Home Record: 3-2
- Last 5 against Padres: 0-0
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Padres have lost each of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have won each of their last four games.
- The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last six games.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four playoff games.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Wednesday games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Dylan Cease Record this season: 8-12 ERA: 4.55
- Road Record: 1-9
- Last 5 against Cubs: 3-0
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Cubs have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
- The Padres have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 day games against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday games as favorites against NL West opponents.
- The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Padres have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games.
- The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five playoff games against NL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six playoff games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Padres’ last seven games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Padres and Cubs.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Padres’ last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Seiya Suzuki has hit at least one home run in each of the Cubs’ last five games.
- Ian Happ has recorded a Double in three of the Cubs’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances.
- Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (178) this season.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in three of the Padres’ last four road games.
- Dylan Cease has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
- Dylan Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
- Jose Iglesias has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Padres as underdogs.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
- Luis Arraez ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (181) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (405).
- The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (771).
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1197).
Padres vs Cubs Prediction
The Padres are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Cubs, but the Cubs are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Chicago. Their last three meetings have gone under the total.
In this Padres vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -115 home favorites. The Cubs have the 1-0 lead and are going for a bullpen game. It is hard to fade them, as the Padres are putting Cease on the mound, who has been terrible on the road, with a 5.58 road ERA, but he has been playing better lately. He has one earned run in three of his last four starts, and the Padres have a better bullpen and are better against right-handed pitching. I like the guests in a bounce-back spot today, so take the Padres on the moneyline in this one.