San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Prediction MLB Picks 6/28/24

In this article we will formulate a San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Friday, June 28th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

• The Padres recent form and recent player performance 
• The Red Sox recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving San Diego
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Boston
• Recent betting trends in games played between San Diego and Boston
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between San Diego and Boston 

Padres are Streaking

The San Diego Padres are 44-41 this year and they have won three games in a row. San Diego is coming off of a series win against Washington, where they won all three games by scores of 7-6, 9-7, and 8-5. Prior to that series, the Padres won three out of four against the Brewers, lost two out of three against the Phillies, and lost all three against the Mets. San Diego is 7-1 in their last eight games and they are second in the NL West. 

The San Diego pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 391 runs with a .261 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Jurickson Profar is batting .316 with 11 home runs and 55 RBI’s for the Padres this season. San Diego has scored at least six runs in six of their last seven games. 

Red Sox Offense is Hot 

The Boston Red Sox are 43-37 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Boston is coming off of a series split with Toronto, where they won one game and lost one game, with the third game being suspended. Prior to that series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Reds, swept the Blue Jays, and won two out of three against the Yankees. Boston is 10-3 in their last 13 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 374 runs with a .253 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Jarren Duran is batting .288 with seven home runs and 37 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. Boston has scored at least seven runs in eight of their last 13 games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Randy Vasquez, who is 2-4 with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP over 47.2 innings pitched this year. Vasquez has allowed one earned run or fewer in two of his last three starts, but did allow six earned runs against the Phillies two starts ago. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Nick Pivetta, who is 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 57.2 innings pitched this season. Pivetta has allowed three earned runs or more in three consecutive starts. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will beat the San Diego Padres

• The Padres have lost each of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last four games following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last five night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six night games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last four games as home favorites.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Tyler O’Neill has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Red Sox’s last four games as home favorites.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox’s last four games at Fenway Park.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one Single in 17 of his last 18 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with the Red Sox as favorites.
• Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox’s last seven games at Fenway Park.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one hit in 20 of his last 21 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jake Cronenworth has hit a home run in five of his last nine appearances after not playing the previous day.
• David Peralta has recorded at least one Double in each of his three previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Red Sox.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres’ last four games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 road appearances against the Red Sox.
• Jake Cronenworth has scored at least one run in six of the Padres’ last seven games.
• Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances at Fenway Park.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one total base in 15 of his last 16 road appearances against AL opponents.

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series playing very well recently and they will look to keep it going with a win here. Boston is just 19-21 at home this year, while San Diego is 20-19 on the road. The Red Sox are going with Nick Pivetta, who started the season pretty well, but has not been great in his last three starts. I really don’t like either starting pitcher in this matchup, but I do give the slight edge to Pivetta, as Vasquez has some awful numbers. My San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox prediction is for the Red Sox to win. 

David Racey's Pick: Red Sox ML