San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 6/14/25 MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres are visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday, June 14th at the Chase Field in the second game of this series, with the Dbacks having a 1-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction. We will examine:

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent form and player performance

The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arizona Diamondbacks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends in games played between the San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks game

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 35-34 record this season and are sitting in 4th place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have a 19-17 home record and are 31-33 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-1 home victory over the Padres and have four straight wins. They are playing the Rockies and the Blue Jays next.

The Diamondbacks have a .255 batting average this season, a .332 OBP, and a .449 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.70 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Josh Naylor leads the Diamondbacks with 77 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .302 batting average. Eugenio Suarez leads the team in RBI, with 52, while Corbin Carroll adds a team-high 20 home runs.

Zac Gallen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 4-8 record, 5.15 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP. He has been weaker at home, with a 6.38 ERA in his 8 home starts, and has been in terrible form lately, having given up 4+ runs in five of his last six starts. Zac Gallen is 4-3 with an ERA of 3.16 and 68 strikeouts in 12 appearances against the Padres in his career.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 38-30 record this season and are sitting in third place in the NL West. They have a 17-18 road record, and are 27-39 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 1-5 road defeat by the Dbacks, and have 1-3 in their last 4 games. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games, and are playing the Dodgers and the Royals next. 

The Padres have a .246 batting average this season, a .314 OBP, and a .373 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.46 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 82 hits, adding a team-high .319 batting average and a team-high 39 RBI. Fernando Tatis Jr. adds a team-high 13 home runs. 

Ryan Bergert (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 1-0 record, 1.26 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP. He has been excellent on the road, with a 1.35 ERA across five road games, and he is coming off a shutout start in 5.1 innings pitched against the Brewers. This will be his first career start against the D-backs.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The home team has won each of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games.
• The Padres have lost five of their last six games against NL West opponents.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Saturday day games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games as favorites against NL West opponents.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost nine of their last 11 games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Saturday day games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last seven games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six home games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last four home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Padres’ last seven games as road underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the league for home runs this season (100).
• The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the league for doubles this season (127).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (479).
• The Padres rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (57).

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

The Dbacks are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Padres, and both teams are tied 2-2 in their last 4 meetings in Arizona. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, the Diamondbacks are coming as -150 home favorites. The Padres have a better overall record, and both teams have very similar home/away splits. The bullpen differential is also huge, as the Padres have the third-best bullpen ERA, while the Dbacks are fourth to last, and Gallen has been terrible for most of the season, so the Dbacks are clearly overvalued in this spot. I don’t trust the Padres on the road, so instead I will take a look at the total, which is set at 9.5 runs. Bergert is looking sharp for the Padres, and Gallen has to bounce back sometime, as he has a good history against Padres bats. Yesterday’s game had 6 total runs, and I expect a low-scoring affair again today. Take the under 9.5 runs.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 9.5