Reds vs Phillies Prediction 5/18/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 18th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 24-23 this year after they lost two out of three against the Guardians by scores of 7-6, 4-7, and 3-10. In game three, Cincinnati cut the deficit to 4-2 in the fourth inning, but they allowed the next six runs in the lopsided loss. The Reds recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by De La Cruz, who went 2-5 with one home run and one RBI. Singer allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Antone allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Cincinnati lost two out of three against the Nationals, but did win two out of three against the Astros before that. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.81 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and a .253 opponent batting average, while they have scored 204 runs with a .226 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with 10 home runs and 31 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 11 home runs and 31 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 9.1 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 24-23 this season after they swept the Pirates in three games by scores of 11-9, 6-0, and 6-0. In game three, Philadelphia finally took the lead in the fifth inning and didn’t look back in the shutout win. The Phillies recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Stott, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Wheeler allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Banks closed out the game. Prior to that series, Philadelphia won two out of three against the Red Sox and two out of three against the Rockies. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.22 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and a .265 opponent batting average, while they have scored 199 runs with a .235 batting average and a .302 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 20 home runs and 36 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added 12 home runs and 30 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Andrew Painter, who is 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 37.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last nine road games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have won seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Phillies have lost five of their last six games as favorites against the Reds following a road win.
• The underdogs have won each of the last three games between the Reds and Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine games at Citizens Bank Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Phillies following a loss.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games against the Phillies.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Phillies’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Reds’ last five night games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of the Phillies’ last five games as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against NL opponents.
• Brandon Marsh ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.329) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as an underdog against NL East opponents.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 14 games as road underdogs.
• Sal Stewart is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 10+ Stolen Bases this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 29th in the league for hits allowed this season (436).
• The Phillies rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (134).
• The Reds are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
• The Reds rank 26th in the league for hits this season (356).

Reds vs Phillies Prediction 

Philadelphia rolls into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they have scored 23 runs in their last three games. The Phillies are 12-12 at home this year, while the Reds are 11-12 on the road. Cincinnati has split their last four games and they have allowed 23 runs in their last three. The Reds are starting Lodolo, who has allowed nine earned runs over 9.1 innings, while Painter has allowed 1, 8, 3, 5, and 3 earned runs in his last five outings. Take the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 9.5