Reds vs Cubs Prediction 5/7/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 7th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-17 this season after they lost the first three games in this series by scores of 4-5, 2-3, and 6-7. In game three, Cincinnati scored four runs in the ninth to take the lead, but they blew the save and couldn’t score in the 10th for the loss. The Reds recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by De La Cruz, who went 0-4 with three RBIs. Singer allowed six hits and four earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Burke picked up the loss in relief. Prior to this series, Cincinnati lost all three against the Pirates, but did win two out of three against the Rockies before that. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.48 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a .254 opponent batting average, while they have scored 153 runs with a .219 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with nine home runs and 29 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 10 home runs and 28 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Rhett Lowder, who is 3-2 with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 35.1 innings pitched this season. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 25-12 this year after they won game three by a score of 7-6 in extra innings on Wednesday. Chicago blew a 4-1 lead in the middle innings and they needed two in the ninth to tie the game, before they had another walk-off win. The Cubs recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Happ, who went 3-5 with one home run and two RBIs. Rea allowed six hits and one earned run over 5.1 innings, while Thornton picked up the win in extras. Prior to this series, Chicago swept the Diamondbacks in three games and won two out of three against the Padres. 

This season, Chicago has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a .228 opponent batting average, while they have scored 200 runs with a .259 batting average and a .352 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner has led the Cubs with four home runs and 27 RBIs, while Dansby Swanson has added six home runs and 24 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Shota Imanaga, who is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP over 41.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last 14 games at Wrigley Field.
• The Reds have lost each of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games following an extra innings loss.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in four of their last five day games at Wrigley Field following a home win.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday games as road underdogs.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road day games.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won seven of their last eight day games after going to extra innings.
• The Cubs have lost each of their last five Thursday day games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Cubs’ last five day games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Ten of the Reds’ last 13 games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Reds’ last 10 day games at Wrigley Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four day games between the Reds and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last nine home games.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his four previous appearances at Wrigley Field against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in 16 of his 17 previous appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 games as road underdogs.
• JJ Bleday has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three games.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T10th in the league in Steals (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank T2nd in the league for runs scored this season (200).
• The Cubs rank 4th in the league for hits this season (328).
• The Reds are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (177).

Reds vs Cubs Prediction 

Chicago extended their winning streak to eight games on Wednesday night and they have three walk-off wins in a row against Cincinnati. The Cubs are 17-5 at home this year, while the Reds are 10-9 on the road. Cincinnati has lost six games in a row, but each of their last four have been by exactly one run. The Reds are starting Lowder, who has allowed 8, 2, 1, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last five starts, while Imanaga has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five outings. I can’t believe Cincinnati keeps finding ways to lose in this series and I think this is a very tough matchup for them. Take the Cubs -1.5 here.

David Racey's Pick: Cubs -1.5