Reds vs Cubs Prediction 5/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, May 5th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-15 this year after they lost game one by a score of 5-4 on Monday. Cincinnati led 3-0 in the fourth inning and 4-3 in the eighth, but they allowed two runs in the ninth for the loss. The Reds recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Hayes, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Petty allowed four hits and three earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Pagan picked up the loss in relief. Prior to this series, Cincinnati lost all three against the Pirates, but did win two out of three against the Rockies before that. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.52 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a .254 opponent batting average, while they have scored 145 runs with a .220 batting average and a .306 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with nine home runs and 29 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 10 home runs and 25 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP over 34.2 innings pitched this year. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 23-12 this season after they won game one by a score of 5-4 last night. Chicago only managed three runs in the first eight innings, but they scored two in the ninth for the comeback win. The Cubs recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Suzuki, who went 2-3 with one home run and three RBIs. Cabrera allowed nine hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Rolison picked up the win in relief. Prior to this series, Chicago swept the Diamondbacks in three games and won two out of three against the Padres. 

This season, Chicago has a 3.89 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while they have scored 190 runs with a .259 batting average and a .352 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner has led the Cubs with four home runs and 27 RBIs, while Dansby Swanson has added six home runs and 24 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Jameson Taillon, who is 2-1 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 34.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last 12 games at Wrigley Field.
• The Reds have lost each of their last six road games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents following a home win.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won four of their last five night games following a loss.
• The Reds have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three home games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Reds and Cubs at Wrigley Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Reds’ last five games as underdogs against the Cubs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games at Wrigley Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the last 10 games between the Reds and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Michael Conforto has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Reds.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against the Reds.
• Michael Conforto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six home appearances against the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three games.
• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last eight games as road underdogs.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T10th in the league in Steals (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (190).
• The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (174).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (166).
• The Reds are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.

Reds vs Cubs Prediction 

Chicago rolls into this matchup on a lengthy winning streak and they have scored at least five runs in four of their last five games. The Cubs are 15-5 at home this year, while the Reds are 10-7 on the road. Cincinnati has dropped four in a row and they have scored one run or fewer in two of those four games. The Reds are starting Abbott, who has allowed 2, 5, 3, and 7 earned runs in his last four outings, while Taillon has allowed 3+ earned runs in four of his last five. Take the over here, as neither pitcher has been very good.

David Racey's Pick: Over 8