Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction 9/30/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 30th at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB playoff matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are down 0-1 in this series after they lost game one by a score of 0-9 last night. Boston pitched pretty well for most of the night, but they fell apart in the last two innings for the blowout loss. The Red Sox recorded three hits in the game and they were led by Abreu, who went 1-3. Tolle allowed five hits and one earned run over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Olds allowed three earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Boston won two out of three against the Cubs, but lost two out of three against the Guardians before that. 

This season, Boston had a 3.54 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while they scored 689 runs with a .245 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Willson Contreras led the Red Sox with 27 home runs and 81 RBIs, while Jarren Duran added 20 home runs and 69 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Sonny Gray, who is 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 169.0 innings pitched this season. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are up 1-0 in this series after they won game one by a score of 9-0 on Tuesday night. New York took the lead in the second inning and they scored seven runs in the 7th/8th innings for the blowout win. The Yankees recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Rice, who went 4-5 with two home runs and six RBIs. Schlittler allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 6.1 innings for the win, while Blackburn picked up a hold. Prior to this series, New York split two games with the Orioles and won three out of four against the Rays. 

This season, New York had a 3.24 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a .224 opponent batting average, while they scored 739 runs with a .235 batting average and a .311 on base percentage. Ben Rice led the Yankees with 41 home runs and 97 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger added 17 home runs and 73 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Max Fried, who went 5-5 with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 112.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last 12 Wednesday night games against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last seven Wednesday night games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine night games against AL opponents following a loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last four playoff games against the Red Sox.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won four of their last five playoff games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The Yankees have lost five of their last seven games as home favorites against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road playoff games after playing the previous day.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Wednesday playoff games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last nine games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Yankees’ last nine home games against AL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Red Sox’s last four games against AL opponents.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Austin Wells has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances after playing the previous day.
• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with his team as a favorite against the Red Sox.
• Spencer Jones has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Jazz Chisholm ranks T4th in the league in Steals (41) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has hit a home run in three of his last six road appearances against the Yankees after playing the previous day.
• Sonny Gray has recorded a win in each of his four previous appearances with the Red Sox as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Sonny Gray has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against AL opponents.
• Willson Contreras ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.386) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for home runs this season (223).
• The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (601).
• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.54).
• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (469).

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction 

New York was able to get the lopsided win on Tuesday night and they are one win away from the ALDS. The Yankees were 46-34 at home this year, while the Red Sox were 46-35 on the road. Boston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games, with two of those games being shutout losses. The Red Sox are starting Gray, who has allowed 0, 3, 3, 0, and 2 earned runs in his last five outings, while Fried has allowed one earned run in four of his last five starts. Both pitchers have been great, but I think Gray has the slight advantage here. Take the Red Sox to win in this one.

David Racey's Pick: Red Sox ML