Boston (89-73) vs New York (94-68)
September 30, 2025 at 06:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New York -130 — Over/Under: +7
In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 30th at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB Wild Card matchup.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox are 89-73 this season after they won two out of three against Detroit by scores of 4-3, 1-2, and 4-3. In their game three win, Boston trailed 3-1 in the fourth inning, but they answered with three runs in the bottom of the fourth and held on for the win. The Red Sox recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Hamilton, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Boston started De Leon, who allowed eight hits and three earned runs over 6.2 innings for the win, while Weissert picked up the save.
Prior to that series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Blue Jays and two out of three against the Rays. Boston has won four of their last six games and they finished third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 786 runs with a .254 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Trevor Story has led Boston with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs, while Alex Bregman has added 18 home runs and 62 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 205.1 innings pitched this season.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The New York Yankees are 94-68 this year after they won all three games against Baltimore by scores of 8-4, 6-1, and 3-2. In their game three win, New York trailed 2-1 in the fourth inning, but scored the last two runs to escape with the victory. The Yankees recorded six hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Rice, who went 2-4 with two home runs and two RBIs in the win. New York started Gil, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Williams got the win and Bednar picked up the save.
Prior to that series, the Yankees swept the White Sox in three games and won three out of four against the Orioles. New York has won 11 of their last 12 games and they finished second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 849 runs with a .251 batting average and a .332 on base percentage this season. Aaron Judge has led New York with 53 home runs and 114 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger has added 29 home runs and 98 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Max Fried, who is 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 195.1 innings pitched this year.
Why the Yankees will beat the Red Sox
The Yankees have won each of their last eight games against American League opponents.
The Red Sox have lost each of their last five games at Yankee Stadium following a home win.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five playoff games against AL East opponents following a home win.
The Yankees have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games following a home win.
The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four night games at Yankee Stadium against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Red Sox’s last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Six of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Yankees at Yankee Stadium have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as road underdogs.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four home games.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
Aaron Judge has hit at least one home run in four of the Yankees’ last five night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Max Fried has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances with the Yankees as favorites.
Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Red Sox.
Oswaldo Cabrera has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances against the Red Sox.
Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.331) this season.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 11 Tuesday games.
Connor Wong has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four road appearances against the Yankees.
Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
Garrett Crochet ranks T2nd in the league for Wins (18) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (820).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.455).
The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for batting average this season (.254).
The Red Sox are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
New York comes into this series playing their best baseball of the season, but they did come up one game short of winning the AL East. The Yankees are 50-31 at home this year, while the Red Sox are 41-40 on the road. Boston didn’t have much to play for down the stretch, so they weren’t great to finish the season, but they did win nine of the 13 regular season games with New York. The Red Sox are starting Crochet, who has allowed 0, 3, 3, 0, and 7 earned runs in his last five starts. The Yankees are going with Fried, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. This should be another great chapter in this rivalry, but I have to take the Yankees at a reasonable price with how they are playing.