Boston (89-73) vs New York (94-68)
October 2, 2025 at 08:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New York -154 — Over/Under: 7.5
In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, October 2nd at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB Wild Card matchup.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox are tied 1-1 in this series after they split the first two games of this series by scores of 3-1 and 3-4. In their game two loss, Boston tied the game at two in the third and at three in the sixth, but couldn’t find anymore offense for the loss. The Red Sox recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Story, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. Boston started Bello, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 2.1 innings, while Whitlock picked up the loss in relief.
Prior to this series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Tigers and two out of three against the Blue Jays. Boston has won five of their last eight games and they finished third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff had a 3.70 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while their offense scored 786 runs with a .254 batting average and a .324 on base percentage during the regular season. Trevor Story led Boston with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs, while Alex Bregman added 18 home runs and 62 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Connelly Early, who is 1-2 with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 19.1 innings pitched this year.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The New York Yankees are tied at one in this series after they got a big win in game two by a score of 4-3 on Wednesday. New York blew a 2-0 and 3-2 lead, but they wiggled out of a big jam in the late innings and scored in the eighth for the victory. The Yankees recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Rice, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. New York started Rodon, who allowed four hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Williams got the win and Bednar picked up the save.
Prior to this series, the Yankees won all three against the Orioles and all three against the White Sox. New York has won nine of their last ten games and they finished second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff had a 3.91 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while the offense scored 849 runs with a .251 batting average and a .332 on base percentage in the regular season. Aaron Judge led New York with 53 home runs and 114 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger added 29 home runs and 98 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Cam Schlittler, who is 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 73.0 innings pitched this season.
Why the Yankees will beat the Red Sox
The Yankees have won each of their last seven home games after playing the previous day.
The Red Sox have lost four of their last five night playoff games.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
The Yankees have covered the run line in seven of their last eight Thursday games against American League opponents.
The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road playoff games against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night playoff games.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Red Sox’s last six games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Eight of the Yankees’ last nine games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Yankees’ last six home games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Red Sox’s last six games at Yankee Stadium.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
Aaron Judge has hit at least one home run in three of the Yankees’ last five night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Aaron Judge has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last seven games.
Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.688) this season.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games against AL East opponents.
Connor Wong has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four road appearances against the Yankees.
Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
Matchup/League Facts
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (820).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.455).
The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for batting average this season (.254).
The Red Sox are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
New York was able to get the close win on Wednesday night to tie the series at one, so this is a winner take all game three. The Yankees have had plenty of issues at the plate in this series, but they were the highest scoring team in the regular season. New York is starting Schlittler, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. Boston is going with Early, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all four of his outings this year. I think the Yankees have the much better pitching situation, so I will take New York to win.