Red Sox vs Tigers Prediction 5/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 4th at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 13-21 this year after they lost two out of three against the Astros by scores of 3-1, 3-6, and 1-3. In game three, Boston took a 1-0 lead in the fifth inning, but went scoreless over the last five innings for the loss. The Red Sox recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Duran, who went 2-5 with one home run and one RBI. Suarez allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Kelly picked up the loss. Prior to that series, Boston lost two out of three against the Blue Jays, but did win two out of three against the Orioles before that. 

This season, Boston has a 4.24 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .252 opponent batting average, while they have scored 130 runs with a .235 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with seven home runs and 21 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added two home runs and 18 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Payton Tolle, who is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 10.2 innings pitched this year. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 18-17 this season after they won two out of three against the Rangers by scores of 4-5, 5-1, and 7-1. In game three, Detroit had their lead cut to 3-1 in the seventh inning, but they added four more runs for the lopsided win. The Tigers recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by McGonigle, Vierling, and Torkelson, who all had two RBIs. Hurter allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 3.1 innings for the win, while Vanasco picked up a hold. Prior to that series, Detroit lost two out of three against the Braves and two out of three against the Reds. 

This season, Detroit has a 3.81 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 158 runs with a .251 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Dillon Dingler has led the Tigers with six home runs and 23 RBIs, while Riley Greene has added four home runs and 19 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Tarik Skubal, who is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 43.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The Tigers have won each of their last eight games at Comerica Park against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight night games after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last six night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last six Monday night games at Comerica Park.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 road night games.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won three of their last four games as underdogs against AL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Tigers have lost eight of their last 11 games as favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Red Sox’s last seven night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Tigers’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six night games between the Red Sox and Tigers at Comerica Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 night games at Comerica Park.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Torkelson has hit a home run in six of the Tigers’ last nine games as favorites.
• Tarik Skubal has recorded eight or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Tigers as favorites against AL opponents.
• Matt Vierling has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Monday appearances.
• Tarik Skubal has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances at Comerica Park against opponents that held a losing record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games against AL opponents.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tigers rank 28th in the league for steals this season (14).
• The Tigers rank T4th in the league for triples this season (6).
• The Red Sox rank 27th in the league for runs scored this season (130).
• The Red Sox rank 27th in the league for RBIs this season (125).

Red Sox vs Tigers Prediction 

Detroit comes into this matchup after winning three of their last four games and they have scored 5+ runs in all three of those wins. The Tigers are 12-3 at home this year, while the Red Sox are 7-11 on the road. Boston has really struggled to start the season and they have scored three runs or fewer in five straight. The Red Sox are starting Tolle, who has allowed four earned runs and six hits over 10.2 innings, while Skubal has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. I don’t trust these Boston bats against Skubal, so give me Detroit -1.5 here.

David Racey's Pick: Tigers -1.5