Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 9/19/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 19th at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 83-70 this year after they lost two out of three against the Athletics by scores of 1-2, 5-4, and 3-5. In their game three loss, Boston cut the deficit to 3-2 in the second inning, but only managed one run in the last seven innings for the loss. The Red Sox recorded seven hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Hamilton, Yoshida, and Story, who all had one RBI in the loss. Boston started Bello, who allowed five hits and three earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Tolle and Weissert closed out the game. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Yankees, but did win two out of three against the Athletics before that. Boston has lost five of their last seven games and they are third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 745 runs with a .254 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu (IL) has led Boston with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 25 home runs and 93 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 16-5 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 191.1 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 75-78 this season after they split four games with Toronto by scores of 1-2, 5-6, 2-1, and 4-0. In their game four win, Tampa Bay scored three runs in the second inning and added an insurance run in the sixth to seal the victory. The Rays recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Simpson, who went 3-4 with two RBIs in the win. Tampa Bay started Baz, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Jax picked up a hold. 

Prior to that series, the Rays lost two out of three against the Cubs and two out of three against the White Sox. Tampa Bay has lost six of their last nine games and they are fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 679 runs with a .252 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 44 home runs and 108 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 29 home runs and 80 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who is 10-5 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 144.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Rays will beat the Red Sox

The Rays have won five of their last six games as home underdogs.
The Red Sox have lost six of their last nine games as favorites.
The underdogs have covered the run line in 12 of the Rays’ last 13 games.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Rays 

The Red Sox have won nine of their last 10 road games against AL East opponents.
The Rays have lost six of their last seven night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a home win.
The road team has covered the run line in four of the last five games between the Red Sox and Rays.

Total Runs Facts

Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the last six games between the Red Sox and Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Rays’ last nine home games against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in five of his last 13 home appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents.
Taylor Walls has recorded a hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Red Sox.
Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Alex Bregman has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last seven games against the Rays.
Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three road games against AL opponents.

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 

Boston comes into this series playing very inconsistently, which has them barely hanging onto a wild card spot in the AL. The Red Sox are 37-38 on the road this year, while the Rays are 40-38 at home. Tampa Bay just took two huge games from Toronto and they will look to do the same against Boston. The Rays are starting Rasmussen, who has allowed three earned runs in two of his last three starts. The Red Sox are going with Crochet, who has allowed 3, 0, and 7 earned runs in his last three outings. Take the over in this contest.