Rays vs Yankees Prediction 07/31/2025 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 31st at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 54-55 this year after they lost two of the first three games in this series by scores of 4-2, 5-7, and 4-5. In their game three loss, Tampa Bay led 1-0 in the third and 3-2 in the ninth, but they blew the save and ended up losing in the 11th. The Rays recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Lowe, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. TB started Littell, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Fairbanks blew the save and Kelly got the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Rays lost all three against the Reds and two out of three against the White Sox. Tampa Bay has lost eight of their last ten games and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 501 runs with a .254 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 27 home runs and 70 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added 18 home runs and 62 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 6-8 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 126.1 innings pitched this year. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 59-49 this season after they won game three by a score of 5-4 on Wednesday night. New York blew a 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth, but they forced extra innings and escaped with the win. The Yankees recorded 10 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Volpe, McMahon, Stanton, Bellinger, and Grisham, who all had one RBI in the win. New York started Warren, who allowed six hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Hill picked up the win in extras. 

Prior to this series, the Yankees lost two out of three against the Phillies and two out of three against the Blue Jays. New York has won three of their last four games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 557 runs with a .253 batting average and a .332 on base percentage this season. Cody Bellinger has led New York with 20 home runs and 62 RBIs, while Jazz Chisholm has added 18 home runs and 49 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Marcus Stroman, who is 2-2 with a 6.09 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 34.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Rays

• The Yankees have won each of their last nine Thursday games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Rays have lost nine of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games after going to extra innings.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last five road games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Yankees’ last five day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four day games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last five Thursday day games against AL East opponents.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Yankees as favorites against AL opponents.
• Anthony Volpe has hit a home run in three of the Yankees’ last four games as home favorites.
• Marcus Stroman has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his five previous appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
• Marcus Stroman has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in three of the Rays’ last four games against AL opponents.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Rays as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of his last six road appearances after playing the previous day.

Rays vs Yankees Prediction 

New York comes into this game with some momentum, as they have won two games in a row and three of their last four. The Yankees are 33-22 at home this season, while the Rays are 23-27 on the road. Tampa Bay continues to struggle and it looks like they are sellers at the deadline. TB is starting Pepiot, who has allowed 0, 5, and 3 earned runs in his last three starts. NY is going with Stroman, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five. I do think the Rays have a slight advantage on the mound, but New York is playing better right now and they have been strong at home. Take the Yankees here.