Rays vs Yankees Prediction 07/29/2025 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, July 29th at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 54-53 this season after they won game one by a score of 4-2 on Monday night. Tampa Bay blew a 2-0 lead in the first inning, but they scored once in the fifth and once in the eighth to get the victory. The Rays recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Caminero, who went 1-5 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Tampa Bay started Rasmussen, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Fairbanks picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Rays lost all three against the Reds and two out of three against the White Sox. Tampa Bay has lost four of their last five games and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 492 runs with a .255 batting average and a .321 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 27 home runs and 70 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added 18 home runs and 62 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Joe Boyle, who is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP over 19.0 innings pitched this season. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 57-49 this year after they lost game one by a score of 4-2 on Monday night. New York scored both of their runs in the first inning and they were shutout over the last eight innings for the loss. The Yankees recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Chisholm and McMahon, who both had one RBI in the loss. New York started Schlittler, who allowed seven hits and three earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Weaver allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Yankees lost two out of three against the Phillies and two out of three against the Blue Jays. New York has lost four of their last five games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 545 runs with a .253 batting average and a .332 on base percentage this season. Cody Bellinger has led New York with 19 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Jazz Chisholm has added 18 home runs and 49 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Max Fried, who is 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 127.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Rays will beat the Yankees

• The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The underdogs have won five of the Yankees’ last six games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Rays’ last seven road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Yankees’ last six games as favorites against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last five home games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last four night games against AL East opponents.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against AL opponents.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 18 appearances in night games.
• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last five games at Yankee Stadium against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Max Fried has recorded a win in each of his four previous appearances with his team as a favorite against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Rays as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against AL East opponents.

Rays vs Yankees Prediction 

Tampa Bay was able to snap their losing streak with a great win on Monday night to start this series, but they are still nine games back in the AL East. The Rays are 23-25 on the road this year, while the Yankees are 31-22 at home. New York has lost four of their last five and I think they are going to have issues without Judge in the lineup. NY is going with Fried, who has allowed 4, 3, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last four starts. TB is starting Boyle, who has allowed a total of three earned runs in his last 19.0 innings of work. I don’t love to fade the Yankees at home, but I have been impressed with Boyle and I think the Rays have decent value here.