Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 7/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 17th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 56-38 this season after they won two out of three against the Mariners by scores of 7-2, 6-1, and 2-8. In game three, Tampa Bay allowed the first seven runs in the game and they never had a chance in the loss. The Rays recorded four hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Aranda, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Seymour allowed six hits and five earned runs over 3.1 innings for the loss, while Sulser allowed one earned run in 0.2 innings. Prior to that series, Tampa Bay split four games with the Yankees and lost two out of three against the Astros. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.72 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while they have scored 406 runs with a .257 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with 13 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Junior Caminero has added 26 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay in game one is Griffin Jax, who is 5-6 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 70.0 innings pitched. The projected starter for game two is TBD. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 46-48 this year after they swept the Mets in three games by scores of 6-2, 4-0, and 3-2. In game three, Boston erased a 2-0 deficit in the ninth inning and scored the only run in the 10th for the win. The Red Sox recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Duran, who went 1-4 with one RBI. Tolle allowed three hits and one earned run over 3.2 innings, while Chapman got the win and Whitlock picked up the save. Prior to that series, Boston swept the White Sox in three games and swept the Angels in three games. 

This season, Boston has a 3.59 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they have scored 385 runs with a .243 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with 20 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has added 13 home runs and 45 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston in game one is Jake Bennett, who is 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over 47.2 innings pitched this year. The projected starting pitcher for game two is also TBD. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last nine games.
• The Rays have lost each of their last four road games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four road games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against American League opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against American League opponents following a road win.
• The road team has covered the run line in 10 of the Red Sox’s last 11 games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 home games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Rays’ last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games at Fenway Park.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Rays’ last eight games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Caleb Durbin has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Red Sox as favorites.
• Jake Bennett has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against AL opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Junior Caminero has hit a home run in five of the Rays’ last seven road games against AL opponents.
• Griffin Jax has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against AL opponents.
• Nick Fortes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as an underdog against the Red Sox.
• Griffin Jax has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 

Tampa Bay starts the second half of the season with a three game lead in the AL East and they have won three of their last five games. The Rays are 21-23 on the road this year, while the Red Sox are 17-27 at home. Boston is one of the hottest teams in the MLB and they have allowed two runs or fewer in five straight. The pitching matchups for this doubleheader are a little unknown, so check the probable starters closer to first pitch. In game one, I will go with Boston, as Bennett has been very good recently. I don’t have a play for game two yet, as neither starter has been announced.

David Racey's Pick: Game 1: Red Sox ML Game 2: TBD