Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 5/10/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 10th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 25-13 this year after they lost game two by a score of 2-0 on Friday night. Tampa Bay pitched very well all night, but they had zero offense in the shutout loss. The Rays recorded four hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Fortes, who went 2-3. Scholtens allowed two hits and two earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Englert allowed two hits and zero earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay swept the Blue Jays in three games and the Giants in three games. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.51 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a .219 opponent batting average, while they have scored 167 runs with a .254 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with seven home runs and 29 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added five home runs and 23 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Nick Martinez, who is 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 42.0 innings pitched this year.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 17-22 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 4-8 and 2-0. In game two, Boston scored once in the third inning and once in the fourth, which was enough for the shutout win. The Red Sox recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Abreu and Rafaela, who both had a home run. Early allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Chapman picked up the save. Prior to this series, Boston swept the Tigers in three games, but lost two out of three against the Astros before that. 

This season, Boston has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while they have scored 155 runs with a .234 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with eight home runs and 23 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has added four home runs and 18 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Payton Tolle, who is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP over 17.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight home games against the Rays.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight day games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against the Rays following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against American League opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine home games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Rays have won seven of their last eight games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games at Fenway Park following a loss.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last five day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Red Sox’s last five home games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Rays’ last 10 road games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Red Sox’s last seven games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a home run in two of the Red Sox’s last three home games against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 19 appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank T25th in the league for runs scored this season (155).
• The Red Sox rank 25th in the league for RBIs this season (148).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (269).
• The Rays rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.219).

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston was able to get the low scoring win on Friday night to even this series and they have won four of their last five games. The Red Sox are 7-11 at home this year, while the Rays are 11-9 on the road. Tampa Bay had their winning streak snapped last night, but they have allowed three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The Rays are starting Martinez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, while Tolle has allowed four earned runs over 17.2 innings. This is a great pitching matchup, but I can’t fade Martinez right now. Take the Rays here.

David Racey's Pick: Rays ML