Tampa Bay (50-46) vs Boston (52-45)
July 13, 2025 at 01:35 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Boston -1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5
In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 13th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays are 50-46 this year after they lost the first three games in this series by scores of 3-4, 4-5, and 0-1. In their game three loss, Tampa Bay pitched a very strong game, but their offense couldn’t produce any runs in the loss. The Rays recorded three hits in the game and they were led by Diaz, Mead, and Walls, who all had one hit in the loss. TB started Baz, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.1 innings for the loss, while Uceta closed out the game.
Prior to this series, the Rays lost two out of three against the Tigers and two out of three against the Twins. Tampa Bay has lost seven of their last nine games and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 448 runs with a .258 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 23 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 19 home runs and 50 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 6-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 108.1 innings pitched this year.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox are 52-45 this season after they won game three by a score of 1-0 on Saturday afternoon. Boston scored the lone run in the fourth inning for the shutout victory. The Red Sox recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Narvaez, who went 1-3 with one RBI in the win. Boston started Crochet, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 9.0 innings for the complete game shutout.
Prior to this series, the Red Sox swept the Rockies in three games and they also swept the Nationals in three games. Boston has won nine games in a row and they are currently third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 487 runs with a .256 batting average and a .326 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 18 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 15 home runs and 57 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 85.1 innings pitched this season.
Why the Red Sox will beat the Rays
The Red Sox have won each of their last nine games after playing the previous day.
The Rays have lost each of their last five games at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against the Rays following a win.
Total Runs Facts
Five of the Red Sox’s last six day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Three of the Rays’ last four day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Red Sox’s last seven home games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last nine games against AL East opponents.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances after playing the previous day.
Alex Bregman has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
Trevor Story has recorded a Double in three of the Red Sox’s last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 16 of his last 17 appearances against AL East opponents.
Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against AL East opponents.
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction
Boston comes into this matchup looking for their 10th win in a row, as their pitching staff has been very good over the last few series. The Red Sox are 31-20 at home this year, while the Rays are 22-21 on the road. Tampa Bay has dropped three games in a row and they are starting Pepiot, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Boston is going with Bello, who has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. Both of these pitchers are pretty even, but I am going to side with Boston, as they are finding ways to win right now.