Tampa Bay (50-44) vs Boston (50-45)
July 11, 2025 at 07:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Boston +1.5 — Over/Under: +9
In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 11th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays are 50-44 this year after they lost game one by a score of 4-3 on Thursday night. Tampa Bay led 3-1 in the sixth inning, but their bullpen couldn’t hold the lead in the loss. The Rays recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Kim, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Tampa Bay started Bradley, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Baker picked up the loss in relief.
Prior to this series, the Rays lost two out of three against the Tigers and two out of three against the Twins. Tampa Bay has lost eight of their last eleven games and they are currently third in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 444 runs with a .260 batting average and a .322 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 23 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 19 home runs and 50 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 89.1 innings pitched this year.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox are 50-45 this season after they won game one on Thursday night. Boston led 1-0 in the third inning, but they needed three runs in the seventh to escape with the win. The Red Sox recorded four hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Rafaela, who went 2-3 with two RBIs in the win. Boston started Buehler, who allowed five hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Murphy picked up the win and Chapman got the save.
Prior to this series, the Red Sox swept the Rockies in three games and swept the Nationals in three games. Boston has won seven games in a row and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .247 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 481 runs with a .256 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 18 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 15 home runs and 57 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Hunter Dobbins, who is 4-1 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 59.1 innings pitched this season.
Why the Rays will beat the Red Sox
The Rays have won nine of their last 10 road games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 road games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against the Rays at Fenway Park following a win.
Total Runs Facts
Six of the Red Sox’s last seven games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
Four of the Rays’ last five night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last five games at Fenway Park.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 15 of the Rays’ last 16 Friday games against AL East opponents.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Trevor Story has recorded a Double in three of the Red Sox’s last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
Ha-Seong Kim has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances.
Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against AL East opponents.
Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances.
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction
Boston comes into this matchup looking for their eighth straight win, as they continue to make a push in the AL East standings. The Red Sox are 29-20 at home this year, while the Rays are 22-19 on the road. Tampa Bay continues to have issues and they are starting Rasmussen, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, but is only expected to pitch a few innings. Boston is going with Dobbins, who has allowed 4, 0, 3, and 1 earned run in his last four outings and is coming off of the IL. I know Boston is rolling right now, but I don’t love Dobbins on the mound. Take the Rays here.