Rays vs Pirates Prediction 4/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Friday, April 17th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 11-7 this season after they swept the White Sox in three games by scores of 8-5, 8-3, and 5-3. In game three, Tampa Bay trailed 3-2 in the ninth inning, but they scored three runs in the ninth for the win. The Rays recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Walls, who went 1-4 with two RBIs. Matz allowed six hits and two earned runs over 5.1 innings, while Kelly picked up the win and Baker got the save. Prior to that series, Tampa Bay swept the Yankees in three games, but lost two out of three against the Cubs before that. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 4.38 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .223 opponent batting average, while they have scored 91 runs with a .264 batting average and a .341 on base percentage. Yandy Diaz has led the Rays with three home runs and 16 RBIs, while Jonathan Aranda has added three home runs and 15 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Nick Martinez, who is 0-0 with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 16.2 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 11-8 this year after they split four games with the Nationals by scores of 16-5, 4-5, 2-0, and 7-8. In game four, Pittsburgh led 6-5 in the sixth inning, but they needed a tying run in the ninth, before losing in extra innings. The Pirates recorded 15 hits and they committed four errors in the game, while they were led by Ozuna, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Ashcraft allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Santana picked up the loss in relief. Prior to that series, Pittsburgh won two out of three against the Cubs, but lost two out of three against the Padres before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.27 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .221 opponent batting average, while they have scored 95 runs with a .252 batting average and a .342 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with five home runs and 17 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added seven home runs and 16 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Bubba Chandler, who is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP over 14.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last six night games following a loss.
• The Rays have lost four of their last five games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three night games against NL Central opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last six games at PNC Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have won each of their last three games as underdogs.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games at PNC Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last five road games.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road night games.
• The Pirates have lost the first inning in three of their last four games at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last five games between the Rays and Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Rays’ last six road games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last six Friday games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Rays’ last seven night games against National League opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his 15 previous home appearances against the Rays.
• Brandon Lowe ranks T3rd in the league in Home Runs (7) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last seven road games.
• Yandy Diaz ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.371) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.221).
• The Pirates rank T5th in the league for strikeouts this season (182).
• The Rays rank T3rd in the league for triples this season (4).
• The Rays rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.264).

Rays vs Pirates Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup after sweeping the Yankees and White Sox, and they have scored 5+ runs in five straight games. The Rays are 7-5 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 6-4 at home. Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses over their last five and they have allowed 5+ runs in four of those five. This is a pretty even pitching matchup, but Martinez has better numbers and the Rays are scorching hot, so I will take TB to win here.

David Racey's Pick: Rays ML