Rays vs Orioles Prediction 9/24/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 24th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 76-81 this season after they lost game one by a score of 6-0 on Tuesday night. Tampa Bay fell behind early in the game and never had a chance, as their offense took the night off. The Rays recorded two hits in the game and they were led by Simpson and Lowe, who both had one hit in the game. TB started Pepiot, who allowed three hits and three earned runs over 3.0 innings for the loss, while Seymour allowed three earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Rays lost two out of three against the Red Sox and split four games with the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay has lost three of their last four games and they are fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 696 runs with a .250 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 44 home runs and 108 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 30 home runs and 81 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz, who is 10-12 with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 162.1 innings pitched this season. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 74-83 this year after they won game one by a score of 6-0 to start the series on Tuesday. Baltimore scored twice in the first, once in the third, once in the fifth, and twice in the sixth in the shutout win. The Orioles recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Cowser and Henderson, who both had two RBIs in the win. Baltimore started Kremer, who allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 6.1 innings for the win, while three pitchers combined to finish the shutout. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles lost three out of four against the Yankees, but did win all three against the White Sox before that. Baltimore has lost three of their last five games and they are last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.58 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and a .258 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 662 runs with a .237 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 17 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 67 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Tyler Wells, who is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP over 17.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Rays 

The Orioles have won eight of their last nine games against teams that held a losing record.
The Rays have lost each of their last four road games against AL East opponents.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games against American League opponents.
The Orioles have covered the run line each of their last four games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against opponents that held a losing record.
The Orioles have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
The Orioles have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Orioles’ last 13 home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Rays’ last three games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Orioles’ last 13 games as favorites.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Rays’ last nine night games.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Dylan Carlson has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last five games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a losing record.
Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with the Rays as underdogs against AL East opponents.
Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against AL East opponents.

Rays vs Orioles Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup trying to hang on to fourth in the division, but they have allowed at least six runs in three of their last four games. The Rays are 35-41 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 38-41 at home. Baltimore is starting Wells, who has allowed four earned runs in 17.2 innings this year. TB is going with Baz, who has allowed 0, 5, 2, 0, and 3 earned runs in his last five. Tyler Wells has been dealing for the O’s, so give me Baltimore to win again here.