Rays vs Marlins Prediction 5/16/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 16th at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 20-23 this year after they won two out of three against Toronto by scores of 11-9, 1-3, and 8-3. In their game three win, Tampa Bay led 3-0 in the second inning and added three more runs in the middle innings to pull away with the win. The Rays recorded 14 hits in the game, and they were led by Lowe, who went 3-5 with two home runs and four RBIs in the win. Tampa Bay started Littell, who allowed eight hits and three earned runs over 7.1 innings for the win, while Rodriguez and Sulser closed out the win.

Prior to that victory, the Rays won two out of three against the Brewers, but did lose all three against the Phillies before that. Tampa Bay has won four of its last six games, and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.84 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 170 runs with a .244 batting average and a .310 on-base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with eight home runs and 20 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added seven home runs and 24 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Taj Bradley, who is 3-2 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 46.2 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 16-26 this season after they lost two out of three against the Cubs by scores of 2-5, 4-5, and 3-1. In their game three win, Miami had their lead cut to 3-1 in the fourth inning, but they were able to maintain that lead the rest of the way for the win. The Marlins recorded six hits in the game, and they were led by Stowers, who went 3-4 with two home runs and two RBIs in the win. Miami started Weathers, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings for the win, while Tinoco picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the White Sox and two out of three against the Dodgers. Miami has lost five of its last seven games, and they are currently last in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 5.53 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a .264 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 173 runs with a .244 batting average and a .309 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 10 home runs and 29 RBIs, while Matt Mervis has added seven home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Max Meyer, who is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 45.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Rays will beat the Marlins 

• The Rays have won 14 of their last 15 night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last five home games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 14 night games following a road win.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road games.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last eight night games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last six games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last three road games against National League opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in four of his last 11 home appearances with the Marlins against AL opponents.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his six previous home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Jesus Sanchez has scored at least one run in three of the Marlins’ last four home games against AL East opponents.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in each of his six previous home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in six of his last 21 road appearances against NL opponents.
• Josh Lowe has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Marlins.
• Ha-Seong Kim has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Josh Lowe has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

David Racey is 20-12 (63%) in the MLB over the last seven days. Click here for his premium plays for today!

Rays vs Marlins Prediction 

Miami was able to pick up a badly needed win last time out to avoid being swept by the Cubs, but their offense has been very low-scoring recently. The Marlins are 10-12 at home this year, while the Rays are 9-6 on the road. Tampa Bay has alternated wins and losses over their last five games, and they are starting Bradley, who has allowed two earned runs in three straight starts. Miami is going with Meyer, who has allowed five earned runs in each of his last three outings. Take the Rays to get the win here. 

David Racey's Pick: Rays ML