Rays vs Astros Prediction 7/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 5th at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 52-34 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 3-1 and 8-10. In game two, Tampa Bay led 7-2 in the fourth inning and 8-5 in the seventh, but they allowed the last five runs for the tough loss. The Rays recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Palacios, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Rasmussen allowed six hits and five earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Legumina picked up the loss. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay swept the Royals in three games and swept the Diamondbacks in three games. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.76 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a .233 opponent batting average, while they have scored 396 runs with a .260 batting average and a .338 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with 13 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Junior Caminero has added 26 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Griffin Jax, who is 4-5 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 60.0 innings pitched this season. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 44-47 this year after they won game two by a score of 10-8 on Saturday. Houston erased an 8-5 deficit in the seventh inning and they scored two runs in the ninth for the walk-off win. The Astros recorded 11 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Alvarez, who went 3-4 with two home runs and six RBIs. Brown allowed six hits and six earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Hader got the win. Prior to this series, Houston lost two out of three against the Twins, but did win three out of four against the Tigers before that. 

This season, Houston has a 4.78 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while they have scored 411 runs with a .242 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros with 29 home runs and 67 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added 19 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Peter Lambert, who is 6-5 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 74.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last five day games after playing the previous day.
• The Rays have lost 10 of their last 12 day games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in six of their last seven day games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against American League opponents following a loss.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won eight of their last nine games after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have lost four of their last five games against the Rays at Daikin Park following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 road games against the Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against the Rays at Daikin Park following a win.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight games against American League opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last eight games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Rays’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Astros’ last six games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the last seven games between the Rays and Astros.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Peter Lambert has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in each of the Astros’ last three home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 10 games against AL East opponents.
• Peter Lambert has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Junior Caminero has hit at least one home run in five of the Rays’ last six games against AL opponents.
• Ben Williamson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Sunday appearances.
• Griffin Jax has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against AL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank T27th in the league for home runs allowed this season (124).
• The Astros rank T5th in the league for home runs this season (120).
• The Rays rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.260).
• The Rays rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.338).

Rays vs Astros Prediction

Tampa Bay had their long winning streak snapped on Saturday night and it was a crushing defeat, as they blew a big lead. The Rays are 21-22 on the road this year, while the Astros are 22-24 at home. Houston has lost three of their last five games and they have allowed eight runs in two of their last three. The Astros are starting Lambert, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Jax has allowed five earned runs in his last 26.0 innings of work. Take the Astros here, as they have a ton of momentum from that comeback win and Lambert has been very solid this year.

David Racey's Pick: Astros ML