| MATCHUP | Pittsburgh Pirates | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 44-44 | 45-43 |
| Spread | +1.5 -171 | -1.5 141 |
| Moneyline | +119 | -143 |
| Total | Over 9.5 (-107) | Under 9.5 (-112) |
| Where | Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia | |
| When | Friday, July 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:45 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Washington Nationals Preview
The Washington Nationals have a 45‑43 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL East. They have a 17‑25 home record and are coming off a 10‑2 road win against the Red Sox. They will face the Angels and the Astros next.
The Nationals have a .248 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .426 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 4.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Luis Garcia Jr. is the team’s best hitter with a .280 batting average. CJ Abrams leads the team in RBI with 60, while James Wood adds a team‑high 22 home runs.
Foster Griffin (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 8‑2 record, 2.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 44‑44 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 21‑22 road record and are coming off a 6‑1 road win against the Phillies. They will face the Nationals and the Braves next.
The Pirates have a .260 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .421 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .305 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 57, adding a team‑high 20 home runs.
Mitch Keller (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 6‑5 record, 4.87 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: July 3, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Foster Griffin Record this season: 8-2 ERA: 2.93
- Home Record: 3-1
- Last 5 against Pirates: 0-0
Why the Washington Nationals will win
- The Pirates have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against NL East opponents following a road win.
- The Nationals have won 13 of their last 16 night games against the Pirates at Nationals Park following a win.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against the Nationals following a win.
- The Nationals have covered the run line in five of their last six games as favorites.
- The Nationals have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against National League opponents.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven road games.
- The Nationals have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller Record this season: 6-5 ERA: 4.87
- Road Record: 2-1
- Last 5 against Nationals: 0-3
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Nationals have lost each of their last four games as home favorites following a road win.
- The underdogs have won four of the Nationals’ last five games.
- The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Friday night games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Pirates have covered the run line each of their last four games at Nationals Park against teams that held a winning record.
- The Nationals have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
- The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.
- The Pirates have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 night games against the Nationals.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Nationals’ last four home games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Pirates’ last six night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Nationals’ last four games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Pirates’ last six night games against NL East opponents.
Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts
- Curtis Mead has hit a home run in four of the Nationals’ last five games against NL opponents.
- Foster Griffin has recorded a win in seven of his last nine appearances in night games.
- Nasim Nunez has recorded two hits in each of the Nationals’ last four games as favorites.
- Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (32) this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in five of his last eight appearances against the Nationals.
- Mitch Keller has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
- Jake Mangum has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances.
- Bryan Reynolds ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.395) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Nationals rank T1st in the league for RBIs this season (446).
- The Nationals rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (470).
- The Pirates rank T1st in the league for hits this season (794).
- The Pirates rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (834).
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Nationals are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Washington.
In this Pirates vs Nationals Prediction, the Nationals are coming as -140 home favorites. The Nationals have a big pitching edge as Forest Griffin goes up against Mitch Keller. Griffin has given up one run or less in five straight starts, while Keller on the other hand, has given 3+ runs in five of his last six starts. The Nationals also have the second-best offense in baseball and have been in good form lately with a 4-1 record in their last 5 games. Take the Nationals to win this one at home.