Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 8/28/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals meet Friday in MLB action from Busch Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out Jared Jones for the start here and Jones is 2-5 with a 4.76 ERA and 77 strikeouts this season. Quinn Mathews will start for the Cardinals and is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 13 strikeouts this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-0 loss at the hands of the San Diego Padres to sit at 65-70 this season. After this series, the Pirates will head home for a series against the San Francisco Giants.

Pirates Lose 4 Of Last 6

Oneil Cruz has 71 hits including 10 doubles, 17 home runs and 52 RBIs while Ryan O’Hearn has 97 hits with 15 doubles, 17 home runs and 69 RBIs this season. Nick Gonzales has 145 hits with 22 doubles and 56 RBIs while Brandon Lowe has 123 hits with 26 doubles, 27 home runs and 80 RBIs and Bryan Reynolds has 131 hits with 32 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs and 66 RBIs as well this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals come into this game looking to add on to their 7-5 win over the Baltimore Orioles last tie out to sit at 67-68 this season. After this series, the Cardinals will head on the road for a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Cardinals Snap Five-Game Slide

Jordan Walker has 146 hits, 29 doubles, 27 home runs and 97 RBIs while Alec Burleson has 149 hits with 33 doubles, 21 home runs and 99 RBIs. JJ Wetherholt has 122 hits with 17 home runs and 48 RBIs while Ivan Herrera has 123 hits with 23 doubles, 14 home runs and 53 RBIs. Masyn Winn’s added 103 hits with 19 doubles and 51 RBIs and Nathan Church has 83 hits with 10 home runs and 45 RBIs this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends: August 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Quinn Mathews      Record this season: 0-2      ERA: 6.43
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: –

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last 11 Friday games against NL opponents.
• The Cardinals have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites against the Cardinals following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Cardinals’ last six games at Busch Stadium.
• The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have won the first inning in three of their last four games against NL opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jared Jones      Record this season: 2-5      ERA: 4.76
• Road Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Cardinals: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last five night games following a win.
• The road team has won six of the last seven games between the Pirates and Cardinals.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents.
• The road team has covered the run line in six of the last seven games between the Pirates and Cardinals.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games against the Cardinals.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four games at Busch Stadium against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cardinals’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Pirates’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Pirates’ last eight night games against NL Central opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Cardinals’ last four games against NL opponents.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Jordan Walker has hit a home run in each of the Cardinals’ last two games against NL Central opponents.
• Alec Burleson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals’ last 13 games.
• Alec Burleson ranks 5th in the league in Hits (149) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Jake Mangum has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.305) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cardinals rank T26th in the league for doubles this season (190).
• The Cardinals rank 26th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.383).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1172).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1278).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

I’m on the Pirates here. I get the case to be made for either side in this game, but I’m still not sold on Quinn Mathews as a starter at the Major League level. Jared Jones has had an up and down season but I still feel like he’s the more established option in this matchup and the Pirates at times have had a tendency to surprise when you least expect them to.I think the Pirates back up Jones here and get the win so give me Pittsburgh.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Pittsburgh -125