| MATCHUP | Pittsburgh Pirates | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 43-43 | 48-38 |
| Spread | +1.5 -181 | -1.5 149 |
| Moneyline | +119 | -143 |
| Total | Over 8 (-109) | Under 8 (-111) |
| Where | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | |
| When | Wednesday, July 1, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 48‑38 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 24‑20 home record and are coming off an 8‑0 home win against the Pirates. They will face the Royals and the Reds next.
The Phillies have a .237 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .403 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .317 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 55, adding a team‑high 30 home runs.
Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 8‑1 record, 2.03 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 43‑43 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 20‑21 road record and are coming off a 0‑8 road defeat against the Phillies. They will face the Nationals and the Braves next.
The Pirates have a .258 batting average this season, .336 OBP and .418 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .294 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 57, adding a team‑high 20 home runs.
Paul Skenes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 6‑7 record, 3.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: July 1, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler Record this season: 8-1 ERA: 2.03
- Home Record: 4-0
- Last 5 against Pirates: 3-1
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Pirates have lost six of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have won five of their last six night games against National League opponents.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Pirates.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four home games.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes Record this season: 6-7 ERA: 3.10
- Road Record: 3-3
- Last 5 against Phillies: 0-2
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Pirates have won each of their last eight Wednesday night games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday night games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight Wednesday road games.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the Pirates’ last six games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Three of the last four games between the Pirates and Phillies have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the Phillies’ last seven home games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in four of the Pirates’ last five night games against NL East opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Bryce Harper has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games against the Pirates.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 19 games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in each of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (30) this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in four of the Pirates’ last five games.
- Paul Skenes has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances against NL opponents.
- Jake Mangum has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances.
- Paul Skenes has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.398) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (824).
- The Phillies rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
- The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (768).
- The Pirates rank 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (809).
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction
The Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Pirates and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.
In this Pirates vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -135 home favorites. We are getting the Phillies at a discount at home because Skenes takes the mound for the Pirates. Skenes has been in poor form lately, having lost his last five starts, he has given up at least two runs in each of his last four starts and was torched in his previous start against the Phillies with 5 earned runs. Wheeler on the other hand, has lost only one of his 9 starts and his previous start against the Pirates was a shutout. On top of that, the Phillies have a better bullpen and are the best hitting team against righties in the last 10 days. Take the Phillies to win this one at home.