| MATCHUP | Pittsburgh Pirates | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 42-42 | 47-37 |
| Spread | -1.5 152 | +1.5 -185 |
| Moneyline | -110 | -109 |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| Where | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | |
| When | Monday, June 29, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | NBC Sports Phil | |
In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, June 29th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 47‑37 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 23‑19 home record and are coming off a 5‑4 road win against the Mets. They will face the Royals and the Reds next.
The Phillies have a .236 batting average this season, .301 OBP and .400 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .321 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 54, adding a team‑high 30 home runs.
Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 3‑4 record, 5.58 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 42‑42 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 19‑20 road record and are coming off a 9‑4 home win against the Reds. They will face the Nationals and the Braves next.
The Pirates have a .258 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .418 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 56, adding a team‑high 20 home runs.
Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 7‑3 record, 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: June 29, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola Record this season: 3-4 ERA: 5.58
- Home Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Pirates: 1-1
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Pirates have lost each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Phillies have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Pirates.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites against the Phillies following a home win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs against the Pirates.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft Record this season: 7-3 ERA: 3.07
- Road Record: 3-2
- Last 5 against Phillies: 1-0
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The favorites have won each of the Phillies’ last nine games.
- The Phillies have lost four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games following a road win.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the last four games between the Pirates and Phillies.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
- The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as underdogs against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Pirates’ last four games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Phillies’ last nine night games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Pirates’ last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Bryce Harper has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two games against the Pirates.
- Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his four previous home appearances against the Pirates.
- Aaron Nola has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his four previous home appearances against the Pirates.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 15 home games against NL Central opponents.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (30) this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three games.
- Braxton Ashcraft has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
- Braxton Ashcraft has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 12 night games.
- Bryan Reynolds ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.402) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (798).
- The Phillies rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.301).
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (752).
- The Pirates rank 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (783).
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction
The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Pirates, having won their last three meetings in Philadelphia.
In this Pirates vs Phillies Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. I am with the Pirates in this one, as I trust Braxton Ashcraft more than I trust Aaron Nola. Ashcraft is coming off back-to-back quality starts and has given up two runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts this season, while Nola has given up 2 runs or more in all but one of his starts. On top of that, the Pirates have a better offense, so I expect them to get the job done on the road in this one.