| MATCHUP | Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Spread | -1.5 171 | +1.5 -210 |
| Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-122) | Under 6.5 (102) |
| Where | Citi Field, Queens, New York | |
| When | Thursday, March 26, 2026 | |
| Time | 01:15 PM EDT | |
| TV | NBC | |
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates won 71 games last season and haven’t made the playoffs since 2015. There’s hope that the drought will come to an end as the Pirates were busy this offseason adding Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, and Ryan O’Hearn to the lineup. Gregory Soto and Mason Montgomery boost the bullpen, while Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller are nice to have at the top of the rotation. The offense no longer has to rely solely on Cruz and Reynolds, and the bullpen is deeper than it was last season. All of a sudden the Pirates have emerged as a contender in the NL Central and could play postseason baseball for the first time in a decade. Exciting times in Pittsburgh.
Paul Skenes gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he was 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 216 strikeouts last season. Skenes is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 14 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets won just 83 games last year, missed the playoffs and it resulted in a shakeup of the roster. Guys like Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, and Starling Marte are gone. The lineup now features new faces like Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and Marcus Semien. The pitching rotation has a new ace in Freddy Peralta, while the bullpen will be locked up by Devin Williams and Luke Waver. A lot of roster turnover in just one season, but you can argue this is a deeper team with improvements on the defensive side. The lineup also still features Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto at the top of the order, who are arguably top-10 bats when they’re cooking. The NL East is competitive but winnable for the Mets if health is on their side.
Freddy Peralta gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he was 17-6 with a 3.68 ERA and 200 strikeouts last season. Peralta is 4-2 with a 3.36 ERA and 116 strikeouts in his career against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Mets have won six of their last seven home games against the Pirates.
- The Pirates have lost six of their last seven day games against National League opponents.
- The Mets have covered the run line in three of their last four home openers.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 road openers as underdogs.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four season openers against National League opponents.
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Pirates have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Mets.
- The Mets have lost four of their last six games as favorites.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Mets.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Citi Field.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Mets’ last seven day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Pirates’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 games as home favorites against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Jorge Polanco has recorded a Double in each of his last four home appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last five games as favorites.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three home appearances against the Pirates.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 18 games as home favorites against NL opponents.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL Central opponents.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last three games as underdogs against the Mets.
- Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two road openers as underdogs.
- Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Thursday appearances.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction
You can argue getting Skenes at plus money is where the value is at in this spot, but I’m rolling toward the Mets at home. While it may take time for Peralta to adjust to his new team, he’s facing a Pirates lineup he’s familiar with from his time in Milwaukee. In 119 at-bats against current Pirates, Peralta is allowing a .235 batting average, a .316 on-base percentage and 38 strikeouts. Guys like Oneil Cruz and Marcell Ozuna have had little to no success against Peralta in a combined 33 at bats. I’m going to side with the Mets at home and the cheap price.