Pittsburgh (38-56) vs Minnesota (45-48)
July 11, 2025 at 08:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Minnesota +1.5 — Over/Under: +6.5
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Minnesota Twins meet Friday in MLB action at Target Field. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Prediction. This article will include a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Pick.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 38-56 on the year and play the White Sox, Tigers, and Diamondbacks next. The Pittsburgh Pirates are batting .230 on the season, have a .301 OBP, and a .340 slugging percentage. The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pittsburgh Pirates with 78 hits and 46 RBI, while Ke’Bryan Hayes and Andrew McCutchen have combined for 151 hits and 62 RBI.
Paul Skenes gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he is 4-7 with a 1.94 ERA and 125 strikeouts this season. This will be Skenes’ first career game against the Minnesota Twins.
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
The Minnesota Twins are 45-48 on the year and play the Rockies, Dodgers, and Nationals next. The Minnesota Twins are batting .239 on the season, have a .309 OBP, and a .394 slugging percentage. The Minnesota Twins pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Ty France leads the Minnesota Twins with 80 hits and 42 RBI while Trevor Larnach and Carlos Correa have combined for 157 hits and 69 RBI.
Joe Ryan gets the ball for the Minnesota Twins, and he is 8-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 116 strikeouts this season. This will be Ryan’s second career game against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Why the Minnesota Twins will win
The Pirates have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs against American League opponents.
The home team has won 15 of the Pirates’ last 16 games.
The Twins have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 night games at Target Field following a loss.
The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last eight games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
The Twins have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents.
The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games at Target Field against American League opponents.
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
The Pirates have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Twins following a loss.
The Twins have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a loss.
The Twins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games after playing the previous day.
The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
The Pirates have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games at Target Field against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts
Byron Buxton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in four of his last eight appearances against NL Central opponents.
Joe Ryan has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his 17 previous Friday appearances in night games.
Joe Ryan has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances at Target Field against opponents that held a losing record.
Carlos Correa has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances at Target Field against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday night appearances against AL Central teams that held a losing record.
Tommy Pham has recorded at least one Double in three of the Pirates’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Skenes is great and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 10 innings, but that means nothing if the Pirates can’t score. The Pirates have lost six straight games and have scored three or fewer runs in all of those contests. There’s no backing the Pirates in their current form. Ryan has a 2.76 ERA and 0.89 WHIP on the season, and he’s allowed 14 hits and three runs in his last 19 innings. In 50.1 home innings, Ryan has a .188 allowed batting average. Should be a fun pitching matchup, but the Twins have the edge. Give me the home team.