Pittsburgh (38-54) vs Kansas City (44-48)
July 8, 2025 at 07:40 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Kansas City -1.5 — Over/Under: +8
In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Royals prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, July 8, at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates (38-54, 12-33 Away) registered back-to-back sweeps against the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals, their first such achievement of the season, but they returned to losing ways and are currently on a four-game skid. After suffering a sweep at the hands of the Seattle Mariners without even scoring in three games, the Pirates opened this series against the Royals with a 9-3 defeat. Tommy Pham led the offense with a two-run homer, while Andrew Heaney took the loss after allowing four runs on six hits with two strikeouts and one walk in 3.0 innings.
This year, the Pirates average 3.40 runs per game (30th in the MLB) on a .230/.302/.339 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Pirates’ staff has a 3.68 ERA (7th) and 1.19 WHIP (4th). Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .229 batting average, ten home runs, and 45 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Pirates is Mitch Keller, who is 3-10 in 18 starts this season, with a 3.64 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 106.1 innings.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview
The Kansas City Royals (43-49, 20-25 Home) returned home from a two-series road trip, on which they split with the Seattle Mariners and beat the Arizona Diamondbacks. In Game 1 of the current series against the Pirates, the Royals secured a comfortable 9-3 victory. Bobby Witt Jr. led the offense with three RBI, while Noah Cameron got the win after allowing two runs on three hits with seven strikeouts and one walk across 7.0 innings of work.
This season, the Royals average 3.40 runs per game (29th in the MLB) on a .244/.299/.371 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Royals’ staff has a 3.47 ERA (4th) and 1.21 WHIP (6th). Vinnie Pasquantino leads the Royals with a .271 batting average, 15 home runs, and 56 RBI this season.
Seth Lugo will take the mound for the Royals on Tuesday. The 35-year-old right-hander has a 6-5 record in 16 starts this year with a 2.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 95.0 innings.
Why the Royals will beat the Pirates
The home team has won 13 of the Pirates’ last 14 games.
The Pirates have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents.
The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against AL Central opponents.
The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in 16 of their last 20 night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
The Royals have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Pirates’ last five night games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Royals’ last four games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last four games against NL Central opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five Tuesday games.
Matchup/League Facts
The Royals rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (67).
The Royals rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (636).
The Pirates rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.339).
The Pirates rank T29th in the league for runs scored this season (313).
Pirates vs Royals Prediction
The Royals won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including three of the last four. I am backing the Royals to win again because of the pitching matchup. Seth Lugo has been fantastic lately; he hasn’t allowed more than a run in his previous five starts and surrendered just three in total with two shutouts. I mean, the guy shut out the Dodgers and Yankees in that span, so it’s obvious that the worst offensive team in the MLB will not cause him problems here. Mitch Keller, on the other hand, allowed multiple runs in five of his last seven starts, and I am backing the Royals to score at least two against him. Go with Kansas City.