Cincinnati Reds (74-79) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (71-81)
Game Info: Friday, September 20, 2024 at 6:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -111 / Pittsburgh Pirates -106 — Over/Under: 9
The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds meet Friday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Pirates vs Reds pick. We will examine:
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ recent form and player performance
The Cincinnati Reds’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cincinnati Reds
Recent betting trends in games played between the Pirates and Reds
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Pirates vs Reds game
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates are coming off a series versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh lost the first two games 4-0 and 3-1, then on Wednesday fell again 10-5. In the finale, the Pirates took a 3-2 victory. Luis Ortiz gave up two in the start during 6.0 innings of work.
As starting pitcher for Friday the Pirates will go with Mitch Keller. This year Keller is 11-10 with a 3.87 ERA in 29 starts. Over his career, Keller is 36-48 with a 4.50 ERA in 131 games (129 starts).
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Over on the Reds’ side, they played the Atlanta Braves in their last set. Cincinnati won 6-5 Tuesday, then in game two the Reds took a loss 7-1. On Thursday Cincinnati took a blowout loss 15-3. Julian Aguiar gave up seven earned in 4.0 innings as a starter.
In the starter slot Friday the Reds are sending out Nick Martinez. This year Martinez is 9-6 with a 3.37 ERA in 40 games (14 starts). Martinez is 36-44 with a 4.15 ERA over 238 career games (101 starts).
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Pirates have lost four of their last five road games.
- The Reds have won three of their last four night games against the Pirates following a loss.
- The Reds have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents following a win
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Reds have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
- The Pirates have won each of their last five Friday night games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in 15 of the Reds’ last 17 games at Great American Ball Park.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as home favorites following a loss.
Total Runs Facts
- Eleven of the Reds’ last 13 games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Five of the Pirates’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last four night games against NL Central opponents.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
I’ll take the Reds here. Martinez is cruising along nicely these days. In his last three starts combined Martinez is 3-0 with just two earned over 18.2 innings on 11 hits and four walks. Cincinnati will be set up quite well if Martinez can keep it going.
On Thursday the Reds coughed up 18 hits to the Braves. Aguiar and Brandon Leibrandt each gave up seven earned runs in forgettable outings. If there’s good news Atlanta only used two arms out of the bullpen. They’ll need a bounce-back effort on Friday.