Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves meet Sunday in MLB action at Truist Park. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction. This article will include a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 71-90 on the year after playing the Reds. The Pittsburgh Pirates are batting .232 on the season, have a .305 OBP, and a .351 slugging percentage. The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pittsburgh Pirates with 143 hits and 73 RBI while Andrew McCutchen and Nick Gonzales have combined for 212 hits and 87 RBI.

Johan Oviedo gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he is 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 39 strikeouts this season. Oviedo is 0-0 with a 5.06 ERA and 6 strikeouts in his career against the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 75-86 on the year after playing the Nationals. The Atlanta Braves are batting .245 on the season, have a .320 OBP, and a .399 slugging percentage. The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has a 4.38 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Matt Olson leads the Atlanta Braves with 168 hits and 94 RBI while Michael Harris II and Ozzie Alies have combined for 296 hits and 160 RBI.

Charlie Morton gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and he is 9-11 with a 5.89 ERA and 148 strikeouts this season. Morton is 1-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his career against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Charlie Morton      Record this season: 9-11      ERA: 5.89
• Home Record: 5-5
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-0

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Braves have won five of their last six day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games at Truist Park following a win.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Johan Oviedo      Record this season: 2-0      ERA: 3.57
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Braves: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Braves have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have won five of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against the Braves.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Truist Park against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Braves’ last eight games as favorites against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Pirates and Braves.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Pirates’ last five games.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Matt Olson has hit a home run in four of the Braves’ last five day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Braves as favorites against the Pirates.
• Sean Murphy has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Braves as favorites against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Johan Oviedo has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Sunday day appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Joey Bart has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three day games.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

The Pirates have played the better ball in this series, and Oviedo has been the better pitcher. Oviedo has a 3.57 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the season, and he has a 3.26 ERA and .188 allowed batting average in 19.1 innings. Morton is a shell of himself at 41 years old, and he’s allowed 17 hits and 17 runs in his last 12 innings. Morton has allowed 22 runs in his last 17 innings. In 76 home innings, Morton has a 6.28 ERA and .279 allowed batting average. Morton is an innings’ eater at this point in his career. Give me the Pirates.