Pirates vs Reds Prediction 4/11/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, April 11th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 5-8 this year after they won two out of three games against the Cardinals by scores of 8-4, 3-5, and 2-1. In that game three win, the Pirates were unable to score any runs during the first 11 innings, but they scored once in the 12th and once in the 13th for the win. The Pirates recorded five hits in the game, and they were led by Bart and Pham, who both had one RBI in the win. Pittsburgh started Keller, who allowed just four hits over 7.1 innings, while Lawrence pitched the final 1.2 innings for the win. 

Prior to that series, the Pirates lost two out of three games against the Yankees and two out of three against the Rays. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.38 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .251 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 45 runs with a .198 batting average and a .289 on-base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with two home runs, five RBIs, and seven stolen bases, while Bryan Reynolds has added two home runs and six RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Bailey Falter, who is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 10.0 innings pitched this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 5-8 this season after they won two out of three against the Giants by scores of 2-0, 1-0, and 6-8. In that game three loss, the Reds led 6-1 in the sixth inning, but they allowed San Francisco to tie the game in the eighth, before losing in the 10th. Cincinnati recorded six hits, and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by De La Cruz and Lux, who both had two RBIs in the game. Cincinnati started Martinez, who allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Santillan picked up the blown save, and Pagan got the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Reds lost three out of four games against the Brewers and two out of three against the Rangers. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.15 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and a .200 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 48 runs with a .206 batting average and a .267 on-base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with two home runs and 12 RBIs, while TJ Friedl has added one home run and five RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Brady Singer, who is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 12.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Reds will beat the Pirates 

• The Pirates have lost six of their last seven games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Reds have won four of their last five home games following a road loss.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five Friday games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last three night games against the Pirates.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last four games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Pirates’ last six road games following an extra innings win have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Reds’ last eight games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Pirates’ last six games against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Reds as favorites against NL opponents.
• Jeimer Candelario has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against the Pirates after not playing the previous day.
• Tyler Stephenson has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Pirates after not playing the previous day.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Tyler Stephenson has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games against the Reds.
• Adam Frazier has recorded at least one Single in 13 of his last 15 appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has scored at least one run in each of his last four road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded an RBI in five of his last six appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Joey Bart has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday night appearances.

Pirates vs Reds Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series with a 5-8 record to start the season, but Cincinnati will be at home here. The Reds won two out of three against the Giants in their last series, but they collapsed in game three and blew their chance at a sweep. Pittsburgh took two out of three against the Cardinals, but they are just 2-5 on the road. Both teams have struggled offensively to start 2025, but I think Cincinnati has a huge advantage on the mound, as Falter had a ton of problems last time out for Pittsburgh. Take the Reds here. 

David Racey's Pick: Reds ML