Pirates vs Phillies Prediction 5/18/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 18th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 15-31 this season after they lost games one and two in this series by scores of 8-4 and 5-2. In their game two loss, Pittsburgh allowed the first five runs in the game, but they did score twice in the ninth to avoid the shutout. The Pirates recorded four hits in the game, and they were led by Reynolds, who went 2-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Pittsburgh started Mlodzinski, who allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 3.1 innings for the loss, while Wentz allowed three hits and one earned run over 1.2 relief innings. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Mets, but did win two out of three against the Braves before that. Pittsburgh has lost four of its last five games, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 141 runs with a .218 batting average and a .299 on-base percentage this season. Bryan Reynolds has led Pittsburgh with six home runs and 22 RBIs, while Andrew McCutchen has added three home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who is 3-4 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 54.2 innings pitched this season. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 27-18 this year after they won game two by a score of 5-2 on Saturday. Philadelphia jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning, and they never looked back in the easy victory. The Phillies recorded 10 hits in the game, and they were led by Stott, who went 2-5 with one home run and five RBIs in the win. Philadelphia started Wheeler, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Banks allowed one hit and two earned runs in the ninth. 

Prior to this series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Cardinals, but did win two out of three against the Guardians before that. Philadelphia has won five of its last seven games, and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 215 runs with a .259 batting average and a .338 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 15 home runs and 35 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added seven home runs and 26 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Mick Abel, who is making his first appearance for the Phillies this year. 

Why the Pirates will beat the Phillies

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five day games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have won each of their last three day games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park following a road loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games following a home win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last five day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games as road favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five games as home underdogs against National League opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Nick Castellanos has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against the Pirates.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies’ last four games against the Pirates.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last eight games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances after playing the previous day.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit at least one home run in three of the Pirates’ last four Sunday games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Andrew McCutchen has scored at least one run in each of his last five appearances at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Jack Suwinski has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against NL East opponents.

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup trying to avoid the series sweep, but they are just 6-18 on the road this season. The Pirates don’t have much going for them this year, but they do have the pitching advantage here. Pittsburgh is starting Skenes, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Philadelphia is 16-8 at home this year, and they are starting Abel, who is making his MLB debut here. I know Abel has had a solid season in the minors, and the Phillies have a way better lineup, but give me Skenes at a solid price here. 

David Racey's Pick: Pirates ML