Pirates vs Mets Prediction 5/12/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 12th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 14-27 this year after they won two out of three against Atlanta by scores of 3-2, 2-3, and 4-3. In their game three win, Pittsburgh blew a 3-0 lead in the eighth, but was able to get a walk-off win in the ninth. The Pirates recorded 10 hits in the game, and they were led by Bart, who went 2-5 with two RBIs in the win. Pittsburgh started Mlodzinski, who allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Santana picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Pirates lost all three against the Cardinals and all three against the Padres. Pittsburgh has lost eight of its last ten games, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 127 runs with a .220 batting average and a .301 on-base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with eight home runs and 18 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added five home runs and 19 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who is 3-4 with a 2.77 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 48.2 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 26-15 this season after they won two out of three against the Cubs by scores of 7-2, 5-6, and 6-2. In their game three win, New York was tied at two in the later innings, but they scored four runs in the eighth to get the victory. The Mets recorded 12 hits in the game, and they were led by Nimmo and Vientos, who both had two RBIs in the win. New York started Canning, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Stanek picked up the win in the eighth. 

Prior to that series, the Mets won two out of three against the Diamondbacks, but did lose two out of three against the Cardinals before that. New York has won four of their last six games, and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 2.88 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 199 runs with a .255 batting average and a .334 on-base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with nine home runs and 34 RBIs, while Francisco Lindor has added nine home runs and 26 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 38.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Pirates 

• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven games against the Mets following a win.
• The favorites have won 18 of the last 19 games between the Pirates and Mets.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against the Mets following a win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in seven of the last eight games between the Pirates and Mets.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 home games.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home night games.

Why the Pirates will beat the Mets 

• The Mets have lost four of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five games against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last three games as favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mets’ last seven games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Pirates’ last 10 games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Pirates and Mets at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brett Baty has hit at least one home run in each of his last three home appearances.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the Mets’ last nine games as home favorites against the Pirates.
• Pete Alonso has scored at least one run in eight of the Mets’ last nine night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Jesse Winker has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Pirates.
• Pete Alonso ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.613) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Pirates’ last five games against the Mets at Citi Field.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates’ last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games against the Mets.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz has scored at least one run in 11 of the Pirates’ last 13 night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (25).
• The Mets rank T1st in the league for runs allowed this season (132).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for RBIs this season (124).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (28).

David Racey is 27-7 (79%) in the MLB over the last seven days. Click here for his premium plays for today!

Pirates vs Mets Prediction 

Pittsburgh was able to get a badly needed series win over Atlanta in their last series, but they have really struggled this season, and they are just 5-14 on the road. New York is 15-4 at home, and they are starting to heat up, as they try to hold the lead in the NL East. The Mets are starting Peterson, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Pirates are turning to Skenes, who has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. Take the under here. 

David Racey's Pick: Under 7.5