Phillies vs Marlins Prediction 5/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 4th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 14-20 this year after they won two of the first three games in this series by scores of 6-5, 0-4, and 7-2. In game three, Philadelphia scored six runs in the first inning and they cruised to the very easy victory. The Phillies recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Stott, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Luzardo allowed eight hits and two earned runs over 6.1 innings for the win, while Kerkering closed out the game. Prior to this series, Philadelphia swept the Giants in three games, but lost two out of three against the Braves before that. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.75 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and a .279 opponent batting average, while they have scored 131 runs with a .225 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 11 home runs and 20 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added six home runs and 19 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 1-3 with a 6.03 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 31.1 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 16-18 this season after they lost game three by a score of 7-2 on Sunday afternoon. Miami never had a chance in this game after the first inning, but they scored two runs in the seventh to avoid the shutout. The Marlins recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Ruiz, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Paddack allowed six hits and seven earned runs over 2.2 innings for the loss, while Phillips threw three scoreless innings in relief. Prior to this series, Miami won two out of three against the Dodgers, but lost two out of three against the Giants before that. 

This season, Miami has a 3.95 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .222 opponent batting average, while they have scored 146 runs with a .252 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with seven home runs and 29 RBIs, while Owen Caissie has added two home runs and 15 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Janson Junk, who is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 33.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last three games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight road games following a road win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four night games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at LoanDepot Park.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight Monday games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost 15 of their last 16 Monday games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line each of their last six Monday night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Monday home games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last three games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Marlins’ last 10 games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as road favorites against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 12 games at LoanDepot Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Esteury Ruiz has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Otto Lopez ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.341) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryson Stott has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two games as favorites.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his seven previous Monday night appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Adolis Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last eight night games.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
• The Marlins rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (25).
• The Phillies rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.225).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (323).

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction 

Philadelphia was able to bounce back from their game two loss with a blowout win on Sunday and they will look for the series win here. The Phillies are 6-10 on the road this year, while the Marlins are 11-8 at home. Miami has allowed 13 runs in games one and three in this series, but they will start Junk, who has allowed zero earned runs in back to back starts. The Phillies are going with Nola, who has allowed 11 earned runs and 13 hits in his last two starts. Take the Marlins to get the win at home.

David Racey's Pick: Marlins ML