Philadelphia (54-39) vs San Diego (50-43)
July 11, 2025 at 09:40 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: San Diego +1.5 — Over/Under: +8
In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 11, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies (54-39, 24-23 Away) won three series in a row after beating the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, and Cincinnati Reds, but failed to make it four straight after losing to the San Francisco Giants. The Phillies at least avoided getting swept with a massive 13-0 victory in Game 3. Kyle Schwarber led the offense with three RBI, while Jesus Luzardo got the win after allowing no runs on three hits with seven strikeouts and one walk across 7.0 innings of work.
This year, the Phillies average 4.62 runs per game (9th in the MLB) on a .257/.330/.407 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Phillies’ staff has a 3.66 ERA (7th) and 1.25 WHIP (12th). Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with a .253 batting average, 29 home runs, and 68 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Phillies is Ranger Suarez, who is 7-2 in 12 starts this season, with a 1.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 77.0 innings.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres (50-43, 29-17 Home) responded to back-to-back series defeats against the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies with a win over the Texas Rangers. The Padres then split with the Arizona Diamondbacks at home thanks to a narrow 4-3 victory in Game 4 on Thursday. Randy Vasquez pitched for 4.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs on five hits with one strikeout and four walks, while Adrian Morejon was credited with the win.
This season, the Padres average 4.01 runs per game (24th in the MLB) on a .245/.315/.374 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.69 ERA (10th) and 1.24 WHIP (10th). Manny Machado leads the Padres with a .291 batting average, 16 home runs, and 54 RBI this season.
Ryan Bergert will take the mound for the Padres on Friday. The 25-year-old right-hander has a 1-0 record in five starts this year with a 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 27.0 innings.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Phillies’ last four night games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Padres’ last four games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last seven games against NL East opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Phillies’ last 12 games as favorites against National League opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
The Padres rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (707).
The Padres rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (80).
The Phillies rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.330).
The Phillies rank 5th in the league for batting average this season (.257).
Phillies vs Padres Prediction
The Phillies won eight of the previous ten H2H encounters, including two of three meetings this season. Two of those three went Under, and I am going with another low-scoring affair here because I don’t have a clue who’s gonna win. Ranger Suarez has been one of the best pitchers in the NL this season and is coming from a sensational month, posting a 1.30 ERA in June. Suarez surrendered only four runs in his last five starts and allowed more than two runs just twice this year. Ryan Bergert, on the other hand, is returning from an injury, and I am not sure how many innings he can give in this game, but he should be fine for at least four innings. I am leaning toward the Phillies, but I’ll opt for Under.