Pittsburgh Pirates (48-48) vs Philadelphia Phillies (62-34)
Game Info: Friday, July 19, 2024 at 6:40 pm (PNC Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +200 / Philadelphia Phillies -250 — Over/Under: 7.5
The Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Friday in MLB action from PNC Park. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game. We will examine:
The Philadelphia Phillies recent form and player performance
The Pittsburgh Pirates recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Philadelphia Phillies
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent betting trends in games played between the Phillies and Pirates
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Phillies vs Pirates game
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
In their last series before the All-Star break, the Phillies played the Oakland Athletics. Philadelphia lost 6-2 in the opener of that set, but then came back for an 11-5 win in game two. In the Sunday rubber match however, the Phillies were blown out 18-3.
In the starter role for Friday’s game it’ll be Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola. So far this year Nola is 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 19 starts. Over his career Nola is 101-75 with a 3.70 ERA in 254 starts total.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Over on the Pirates’ side, they did quite well in their last series versus the Chicago White Sox. Pittsburgh posted wins in all three of those outings, taking victories 4-1, 6-2 and 9-4. The Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven games.
Martin Perez will start for Pittsburgh Friday. Perez is 1-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 57 Ks this year.
Phillies vs Pirates Pick Injury Notes
Phillies RP Luis Ortiz underwent Tommy John surgery last week. RP Spencer Turnbull (lat) resumed playing catch last weekend.
Pirates RP Hunter Stratton (triceps) began a rehab assignment Monday.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last seven home games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four night games against NL Central opponents.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games against NL East opponents.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances at PNC Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Oneil Cruz has scored at least one run in five of his last six appearances against NL East opponents at PNC Park.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded two or more hits in four of his last five home appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Connor Joe has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six Friday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Trea Turner has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games.
- Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with the Phillies as road favorites.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Phillies’ last six games.
- Aaron Nola has recorded a win in five of his last six road appearances against NL opponents.
- Aaron Nola has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.
- Trea Turner has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Kyle Schwarber has scored a run in each of his last six appearances against the Pirates after not playing the previous day.
- Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances in night games.
- Bryce Harper ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.579) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 27th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.299).
- The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 4th in the league for home runs allowed this season (93).
- The Philadelphia Phillies rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (846).
- The Philadelphia Phillies rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.259).
Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
I might take a stab on the Phillies here. With the thick line I could probably go either way, though. Nola had a couple of reasonable starts at the beginning of this month, going 1-1 with six earned in 12.2 innings on 11 total hits. He posted a good outing on July 11 in his most recent appearance as well. Nola notched one earned in 6.0 frames in a win over the Dodgers there. Philly should be in pretty good hands with Nola on the mound.
All of that said, the Pirates have been playing quite well lately themselves. Pittsburgh has scored four or more runs in five of their last seven games. They’ve also held opponents to two or fewer runs in five of the last seven. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Pirates keep it going. This one’s a toss-up.