New York Mets (92-75) vs Philadelphia Phillies (96-68)
Game Info: Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 5:08 pm (Citi Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: New York Mets -105 / Philadelphia Phillies -115 — Over/Under: 7.5
In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, October 8th at Citi Field in New York. To formulate this prediction for game three in the NLDS, we will examine:
- The Phillies recent form and recent player performance
- The Mets recent form and recent play performance
- Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Philadelphia
- Recent Betting trends and streaks involving New York
- Recent betting trends in games played between Philadelphia and New York
- A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Philadelphia and New York
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies were able to get a big win in game two of this series by a score of 7-6, after they dropped game one on Saturday. Philadelphia trailed 3-0 in the sixth inning and blew a 6-4 lead in the ninth, but they still managed to get the walk off victory. Prior to the postseason, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Nationals, won two out of three against the Cubs, and lost three out of four against the Mets.
The Philadelphia pitching staff had a 3.85 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average in the regular season. The Phillies offense scored 784 runs with a .257 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Bryce Harper hit .285 with 30 home runs and 87 RBI’s for the Phillies this year.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets came up just short of taking a 2-0 series lead back to New York, but they did win game one by a score of 6-2. New York trailed 1-0 in the eighth inning, but they scored five in the eighth and one in the ninth in the game one win. New York did defeat the Brewers in three games in the Wild Card round, winning games one and three. Prior to the postseason, the Mets split a double header with the Braves, lost two out of three against the Brewers, and lost one game against the Braves.
The New York pitching staff had a 3.96 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average this year. The Mets offense scored 768 runs with a .246 batting average and a .319 on base percentage during the regular season. Pete Alonso hit .240 with 34 home runs and 88 RBI’s for the Mets this season.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 199.1 innings pitched this season. Nola has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who allowed eight earned runs in his last two regular season starts, but went 5.0 innings against the Brewers in the Wild Card round and allowed just two earned runs.
Why the Mets will beat the Phillies
- The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
- The Mets have won each of their last six night games against the Phillies at Citi Field following a loss.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
Why the Phillies will beat the Mets
- The Mets have lost each of their last seven Tuesday night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have won each of their last five night playoff games following a home win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night playoff games following a home win.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night playoff games at Citi Field.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last seven games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Five of the Mets’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four games at Citi Field.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last three night games.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Sean Manaea has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
- Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets’ last five home games against NL East opponents.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
- Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
- Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances at Citi Field.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last seven games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 12 games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Harrison Bader has hit a home run in five of his last seven appearances in night playoff games.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Nick Castellanos has hit at least one home run in three of the Phillies’ last four playoff games against NL East opponents.
- Alec Bohm has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies’ last five games as road favorites against NL opponents.
- Aaron Nola has recorded a win in each of his three previous playoff appearances as starting pitcher against NL East opponents.
- Alec Bohm has scored a run in five of his last six road appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Nick Castellanos has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies’ last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last nine Tuesday night appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
- Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last nine games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Brandon Marsh has recorded a Double in three of the Phillies’ last four playoff games as road favorites.
- Bryson Stott has recorded at least one Single in nine of his last 10 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Trea Turner ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.295) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The New York Mets rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (1232).
- The New York Mets rank 5th in the league for strikeouts this season (1455).
- The Philadelphia Phillies rank 4th in the league for doubles this season (285).
- The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction
These two teams have played two very entertaining games so far in the series, but now the Mets will have the home field advantage. Philadelphia was only one game above .500 on the road this season, while the Mets were 46-35 at home. I know Sean Manaea pitched well in the Wild Card round, but I don’t trust him against this Phillies lineup. On the other side, Nola hasn’t been great in recent outings and faces a hot New York lineup here. Take the over in this matchup.