| MATCHUP | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 12-19 | 15-16 |
| Spread | -1.5 135 | +1.5 -163 |
| Moneyline | -131 | +109 |
| Total | Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115) |
| Where | loanDepot park, Miami, Florida | |
| When | Friday, May 1, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, May 1st in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 15-16 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 10-6 home record and are coming off a 3-2 win on the road against the Dodgers. Their previous three games were a 2-1 win and a 4-5 loss on the road against the Dodgers, and a 3-6 loss on the road against the Giants.
The Marlins have a .250 batting average this season, .331 OBP and .381 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Xavier Edwards is the team’s best hitter with a .336 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 28, also adding a team‑high 7 home runs.
Eury Perez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 2-2 record, 4.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 12-19 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL East. They have a 4-9 away record and are coming off a 6-5 win at home against the Giants. Their previous three games were a 3-2 win and a 7-0 win at home against the Giants, and a 2-6 loss on the road against the Braves.
The Phillies have a .227 batting average this season, .302 OBP and .376 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .303 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 20, also adding a team‑high 11 home runs.
Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 0-0 record, 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: May 1, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez Record this season: 2-2 ERA: 4.60
- Home Record: 2-0
- Last 5 against Phillies: 0-0
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The home team has won nine of the Phillies’ last 10 games.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games following a win.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in four of the Marlins’ last five games.
- The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler Record this season: 0-0 ERA: 3.60
- Road Record: 0-0
- Last 5 against Marlins: 3-0
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last 12 games against the Marlins after going to extra innings.
- The Marlins have lost each of their last seven night games against the Phillies at LoanDepot Park following a win.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Phillies at LoanDepot Park following a win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five night games at LoanDepot Park after going to extra innings.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last four games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Phillies’ last six night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of his last four home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Xavier Edwards ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.336) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL East opponents.
- Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Marlins.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 4th in the league in Home Runs (11) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank T1st in the league for steals this season (36).
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
- The Phillies rank 30th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.280).
- The Phillies rank 30th in the league for hits allowed this season (309).
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
The Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings against the Marlins and are 4-1 in their last 5 visits in Miami.
In this Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -130 road favorites. The Phillies finally got back on track and are coming off a 3-0 home series sweep against the Giants, but they have been bad on the road. Wheeler looked good in his first start and he led the Phillies to a win against the Braves, while Perez has been shaky for the Marlins, with 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts and has a terrible 5.15 expected ERA. The Marlins have both a better offense and a better bullpen but I have to take the Phillies in this one, as they have started to get hot and have a superior pitcher on the mound. Take the Phillies on the moneyline on the road.