| MATCHUP | Philadelphia Phillies | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 52-42 | 43-50 |
| Spread | +1.5 -194 | -1.5 159 |
| Moneyline | +104 | -125 |
| Total | Over 9 (-101) | Under 9 (-119) |
| Where | Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan | |
| When | Friday, July 10, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Tigers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, July 10th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Detroit Tigers Preview
The Detroit Tigers have a 43-50 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the AL Central. They have a 26-21 home record and are coming off a 4-1 home win against the Athletics. They will face the Angels and the Cubs next.
The Detroit Tigers have a .236 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .399 Slugging percentage. Detroit’s pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Riley Greene is the team’s best hitter with a .289 batting average. Dillon Dingler leads the team in RBI with 60, adding a team-high 19 home runs.
Jack Flaherty (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, and he has a 2-8 record, 4.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 52-42 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 27-21 away record and are coming off a 1-0 road win against the Reds. They will face the Mets and the Dodgers next.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a .237 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .307 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 58, adding a team-high 32 home runs.
Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he has a 3-6 record, 5.87 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers Betting Trends: July 10, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Jack Flaherty Record this season: 2-8 ERA: 4.60
- Home Record: 0-3
- Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1
Why the Detroit Tigers will win
- The Tigers have won eight of their last nine games.
- The Phillies have lost each of their last four games following a road win.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs following a win.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games.
- The Tigers have led after 3 innings in each of their last six home games.
- The Phillies have lost the first inning in eight of their last 10 games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents.
- The Tigers have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine Friday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola Record this season: 3-6 ERA: 5.87
- Road Record: 3-4
- Last 5 against Tigers: 3-0
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Tigers have lost each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Phillies have won six of their last seven night games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against American League opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last four games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Tigers’ last seven games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last six night games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in four of the last five games between the Phillies and Tigers.
Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Spencer Torkelson has hit a home run in five of the Tigers’ last six games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Jack Flaherty has recorded a win in eight of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite against NL East opponents .
- Jack Flaherty has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents.
- Riley Greene has recorded at least one hit in each of the Tigers’ last 11 games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Kevin McGonigle ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.398) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Phillies as underdogs.
- Aaron Nola has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a losing record.
- Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
- Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 10 night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (32) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (31).
- The Tigers rank T5th in the league for triples this season (18).
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (919).
- The Phillies rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.304).
Phillies vs Tigers Prediction
The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Tigers and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in Detroit.
In this Phillies vs Tigers Prediction, the Tigers are coming as -125 home favorites. I like the Tigers in this one as they have been one of the hottest teams in baseball lately with an 8-1 record in their last 9 games. Flaherty has been in excellent form lately coming off back-to-back shutouts for the Tigers, while Nola has given been bad this season and has given up 10 runs across his last two starts. On top of that, the Tigers have a better bullpen and have been better against righties in the month of July, ranking 8th while the Phillies are just 21st. Take the Tigers to win this one at home.