| MATCHUP | Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 50-41 | 41-48 |
| Spread | -1.5 -105 | +1.5 -114 |
| Moneyline | -175 | +144 |
| Total | Over 9 (-104) | Under 9 (-115) |
| Where | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio | |
| When | Tuesday, July 7, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 41‑48 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 20‑24 home record and are coming off a 3‑2 home win against the Orioles. They will face the Cubs and the Rockies next.
The Reds have a .228 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .388 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .272 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 61, adding a team‑high 17 home runs.
Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 5‑4 record, 3.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 50‑41 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 25‑20 road record and are coming off a 1‑15 road defeat against the Royals. They will face the Tigers and the Mets next.
The Phillies have a .238 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .404 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .305 batting average. Bryce Harper leads the team in RBI with 57, while Kyle Schwarber adds a team‑high 30 home runs.
Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 8‑1 record, 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: July 7, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott Record this season: 5-4 ERA: 3.88
- Home Record: 2-2
- Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The underdogs have won five of the last six games between the Phillies and Reds.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last six games between the Phillies and Reds.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against the Phillies.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against NL East opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler Record this season: 8-1 ERA: 2.36
- Road Record: 4-1
- Last 5 against Reds: 2-2
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a road loss.
- The Reds have lost eight of their last nine home games following a win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games following a road loss.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games following a home win.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Reds’ last four night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Phillies’ last five road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Reds’ last six night games.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of Zack Wheeler’s last nine road appearances as a starter.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Nathaniel Lowe has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against the Phillies.
- Andrew Abbott has recorded six strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Nathaniel Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Phillies.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Trea Turner has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games against NL opponents.
- J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against the Reds after playing the previous day.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL opponents.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against the Reds.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (30) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (679).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.228).
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (877).
- The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
Phillies vs Reds Prediction
The Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Phillies and have won their last two meetings in Cincinnati.
In this Phillies vs Reds Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -165 road favorites. The Phillies are coming off a disgraceful performance yesterday where they got blown out by 15-1 by the Royals. They are in a big bounce-back spot with Wheeler on the mound and his 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, going up against a struggling Reds team that is 2-6 in its last 8 games and ranks just 22nd in runs per game. Take the Phillies in this one.