Atlanta Braves (48-39) vs Philadelphia Phillies (58-31)
Game Info: Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 1:35 pm (Truist Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves -170 / Philadelphia Phillies +145 — Over/Under: 8.5
In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 7th at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. To formulate this prediction for game three in the series, we will examine:
- The Phillies recent form and recent player performance
- The Braves recent form and recent play performance
- Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Philadelphia
- Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Atlanta
- Recent betting trends in games played between Philadelphia and Atlanta
- A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Philadelphia and Atlanta
Phillies Try To Avoid Series Loss
The Philadelphia Phillies are 58-31 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Philadelphia won the first game in this series by a score of 8-6, but they only scored one run in their loss on Saturday. Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Cubs, split four games with the Marlins, and won two out of three against the Tigers. Philadelphia has not lost two games in a row since June 21st and they have a large lead in the NL East.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.23 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 442 runs with a .259 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Alec Bohm is batting .297 with 11 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia has scored at least five runs in four of their last six games.
Braves Look to Continue Offensive Success
The Atlanta Braves are 48-39 this year and they have lost four of their last six games. Atlanta dropped game one in this series, but they did win game two by a score of 5-1. Prior to this series, the Braves lost two out of three against the Giants, won two out of three against the Pirates, and lost a makeup game with the White Sox. Atlanta is 4-6 in their last ten games and they are second in the NL East.
The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.47 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 373 runs with a .242 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .298 with 23 home runs and 72 RBI’s for the Braves this season. Atlanta has struggled offensively this season, but they have scored 11 runs in their last two games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Michael Mercado, who is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP over 6.0 innings pitched this year. Mercado allowed one earned run and two hits against the Cubs in his first start. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Reynaldo Lopez, who is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 83.2 innings pitched this season. Lopez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts.
Why the Phillies will beat the Braves
- The Phillies have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Braves following a road loss.
- The Braves have lost five of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents following a win.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 road games against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 15 games as underdogs against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Nine of the Braves’ last 10 home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Phillies’ last six games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Braves’ last four games against the Phillies.
- Michael Harris has recorded a Double in three of the Braves’ last four day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 23 appearances with the Braves as home favorites against NL opponents.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
- Ozzie Albies has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last four games as favorites against the Phillies.
- Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 16 appearances against NL East opponents at Truist Park.
- Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 23 home appearances against NL opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies’ last six games against the Braves.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances with the Phillies as road underdogs.
- Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Phillies’ last six day games.
- Alec Bohm has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies’ last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Nick Castellanos has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Phillies as road underdogs.
- Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
Philadelphia has done a very good job of avoiding two losses in a row this season, but they lost on Saturday and they don’t have the pitching advantage in this game. The Phillies are 25-17 on the road this year, while the Braves are 28-17 at home. Atlanta has a solid record this season, but they need to find more consistent offense if they want to challenge the Phillies in the division. The Braves are starting Lopez, who has allowed some baserunners, but has been elite at not allowing runs. Philadelphia is going with Mercado, who has only seen two different outings this year. I do think the Braves have the pitching advantage in this game, but I can’t pass up the Phillies at this number. My Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves prediction is for the Phillies to win.